Tuesday's Economic Data Focuses on Consumers

Includes: DIA, QQQ, SPY, XRT
by: optionMONSTER

By Bryan McCormick

Retail, housing, and consumer confidence will be the themes in today's economic news releases. In addition, the Federal Open Market Committee will begin its meeting with a decision on rates and policy due on Wednesday afternoon.

At 7:45 a.m. ET, the ICSC/Goldman Store Sales report will be released. There are two parts to the report, the week-over-week and the year-over-year comparisons. Most traders focus on the year-over-year number because it is a better indicator of the longer-term trend.

The last week-over-week change came in at -0.1 percent. The year-over-year data in the previous report showed a gain of 1.4 percent. Stronger-than-expected positive numbers would be seen as bullish and negative numbers bearish.


Redbook Store Sales will be reported at 8:55 a.m. ET. As with the ICSC-Goldman report, there are two components to watch. One is the more volatile month-over-month data and the other is the year-over-year difference, which shows the broader trend best.

The last month-over-month reading was -0.6 percent. The previous report's year-over-year data showed a gain of 2.5 percent. Negative numbers in either series would be bearish.

The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index comes out at 9 a.m. ET. Consensus calls for a reading of -0.8 percent on a month-over-month basis, with a year-over-year figure of -1.4 percent. Expectations for the month-over-month number ranges from a bearish -1.5 percent to a less bearish -0.3 percent. The year-over-year expectations range from a bearish -2.1 percent to a bullish 2.2 percent.

The FHFA House Price Index will be released at 10 a.m. ET. There is no forecast data available for this report, but the last month-over-month reading was 0.7 percent. The year-over-year change was -3.4 percent.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index will also be released at 10 a.m. ET and is likely to overshadow the FHFA report. The consensus is for a gain to 54.3 from the previous 52.5. Forecasts range from a bearish 52 to a very bullish 57.

(Chart courtesy of tradeMONSTER)