Citrix Sytems (CTXS) is expected to report Q4 earnings after the market close on Wednesday, January 26, with a conference call scheduled for 4:45 pm ET.
The consensus estimate is 60c for EPS and $508.8M for revenue, according to First Call. Guidance provided on its last earnings call was for 4 EPS of 59c-60c on $500M-$510M in revenue. The company had guided FY11 revenue to $2.04B-$2.07B. Citrix needs a strong beat and raise quarter to propel the shares meaningfully higher in the short term, after its shares retreated on F5’s (FFIV) disappointing results. CLSA expects Citrix to beat its forecasts of $509.5M in revenues, the high end of guidance, representing year-over-year growth of 12.9%. The firm forecast non-GAAP earnings of 61c, also above the guided range. Because Citrix typically hedges currency, CLSA expects the impact from a stronger euro to be muted. The firm forecasts 10.5% license growth, up 10.1% quarter-over-quarter, and well below the 15.3% Q3/Q4 seasonal average from 2002-2009. XenDesktop will be in focus. CLSA expects solid bookings at $90M, up from $60M in Q3 and some investors are looking for at least $100M. CLSA is looking for upside to the quarter to come more broadly from XenApp, NetScaler and other products. Results from VMWare (VMW), IBM (IBM) and Intel (INTC) point to strong enterprise IT spending trends. CLSA thinks Citrix remains well positioned as a beneficiary of both an enterprise spending rebound and secular trends in virtualization and cloud computing. CLSA maintains an Outperform rating and $78 price target.