Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV program, Monday January 31.
The market isn't ready for the social media revolution, but those who are will reap the rewards; investors who got a piece of the Demand Media (DMD) IPO saw a 38% gain. LinkedIn, which announced last week it would go public, is a $3 billion company that only started to become profitable last year. As more social media companies IPO, their sky high valuations are going to affect the valuations of other tech stocks. Suddenly stocks that now seem to have rich valuations will seem cheap in comparison.
Cramer gave the example of Netflix (NFLX), the stock bears love to hate, in spite of its meteoric rise. The stock is up 295% since Cramer got behind it in 2009. However, Netflix would have to double before it even comes close to the valuation that is already being predicted for LinkedIn, and would have to go 95% higher before it touches Facebook's valuation. Cramer thinks it is a safe bet that Netflix will double from here since it is "the fastest growing business in the world" and is like "Facebook with a subscription theme," and since subscriptions give earnings visibility, growth can be seen for the future. Instead of looking at stocks like Netflix through the prism of how much they have grown already, it pays to look at Netflix through the prism of how much people will be paying for Facebook.
When good stocks get taken down for no apparent reason, sometimes it is best to just hang on and ride out the storm. Parker Hannifin (PH) reported a strong quarter, and yet analysts gave management a rough time. The company's earnings beat was alleged to have been only due to lower tax rates, and yet the company is back to the level it was before it reported last week. The case of Eaton (ETN) was less ambiguous, since the company's earnings were not so strong, yet the the stock was "mercilessly" taken down on the Egyptian crisis. However, this stock also bounced back and is up $3.75 from where it was before its report. Cramer's bottom line, as usual, is to hold fast to good stocks and ride out rough action.
CEO Interview: John Koelmel, First Niagara (FNFG)
First Niagara is a bank that is making all the right moves and is "following the playbook for banking supremacy." First Niagara is not a comeback story, since it was always in good shape, even during the credit crisis. This regional powerhouse has grown by leaps and bounds on its acquisition of New Alliance, which will increase its total number of branches to 350. The company also raised the dividend by 7%. Cramer predicted aggressive consolidation of regional banks, which characterized the period after the S&L crisis in the late 80s, and he had FNFG pegged as the next Fleet bank. The stock is up 18% since Cramer got behind it in August.
While Cramer and John Koelmel agreed FNFG is undervalued, the acquisition of New Alliance should cause big money to sit up and take notice; "We are always looking to expand and diversify the investor base," said Koelmel, and the company will accomplish this organically and through acquisitions.
'You've got yield protection and you've got growth, and that is all I look for in a bank. I don't have it in any other bank I follow," said Cramer.
Cramer spoke with Chesapeake Energy (CHK) CEO Aubrey McClendon about the company's $1.26 billion deal selling 33% of its stake in oil fields in the Northwest U.S. to Chinese company CNOOC (CEO). The CEO discussed five similar joint ventures made recently worth a total of $14 billion, and this isn't taking into account the $6-8 billion the company made recently with its midstream assets. McClendon says the money will be used to fund projects and to create 3,000 to 4,000 new jobs. McClendon says his objective is to bring American capital back home, put Americans back to work and to reduce dependence on foreign oil. What makes Chesapeake unique is "the amount of acreage we own and where our acreage is located." When asked if the U.S. has more oil than previously thought, McClendon says recently as much as 100 billion new barrels of potentially recoverable oil has been discovered for a total of $10 trillion. "What other industry has created $10 trillion of value?" he asked.
McClendon said the best plan to get the U.S. off dependence on foreign oil is to develop domestic oil resources and to adapt trucks and large vehicles to run on natural gas. Cramer says CHK is going higher.
What the Heck Does That Have to do with the Earnings of Bristol Myers (BMY)
The media is working overtime to manufacture and exaggerate crises. The market on Monday proved that civil unrest in Egypt wasn't the end of the world for stocks, however, with the Dow finishing up 86 points. Cramer urged viewers to keep in mind what they own and not to get distracted. As he used to say at his hedge fund when the headlines predicted doomsday, "What does that have to do with the earnings of Bristol Myers (BMY)?"
First of all, investors should ask themselves what the said disaster has to do with his or her portfolio holdings? Second, they should think about who is going to benefit from the disaster and think about buying those companies, and third, they should consider any positive result from the disaster that might make money for a sector, a company, and ultimately for them.
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