Traders may want to consult their other crystal balls as Cymer (CYMI) has demonstrated no consistency between its after hours earnings reactions relative to the next day's regular session close.
The company is due to post Q4 results after the bell tonight, and analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect the company to come in with a profit of $0.68 per share on revenue of $143.6 million.
Cymer is mixed with its performance, widening its move in the next day's regular session in 12 quarters and narrowing in 11. In the near-term, the stock is has narrowed its move in three of four quarters.
Looking deeper into the data, the issue has posted an earnings-related decline 12 times during the data we've collected but has expanded that move only 5 times or less than 50% of the time.
When the issue gains in response to earnings, which it has 11 times, it has extended that move 6 times, or 55% of the time.
On Oct. 21, 2010, the stock fell 2.8% after a Q3 beat but disappointing guidance. Shares rebounded to gain 1.3% the next day.
On July 22, 2010, the stock gained 1.8% after a Q2 beat. Shares rose a slimmer 0.5% the next day.
On April 22, 2010, the stock fell 7.1% during evening trading after a Q1 beat but disappointing revenue guidance. Shares were down a slightly slimmer 6.6% the next day.
On Jan. 28, 2010, CYMI slipped 1.5% in after-hours trade despite reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock added to its downside the following day, closing the Jan. 29 regular session down 5.6%.
On Oct. 20, 2009, CYMI declined 1.2% in evening action after reporting a year-over-year decline in Q3 revenue. The stock added to its downside in the Oct. 21 regular session, ending down 3%.
On July 22, 2009, CYMI advanced 7.3% in after-hours action after topping Q2 estimates. It cut its gain slightly the following day, ending the July 23 regular session up 7.2%.
On April 21, 2009, the stock was flat in after-hours trading after a revenue meet. Shares gained 5.4% the next day.
On Feb. 11, 2009, shares fell 3.9% during extended-hours trading after the company reported Q4 results well below the year-ago quarter and guided for a revenue miss. The loss was cut to 0.5% the following day.
On Oct. 21, 2008, the stock slipped 0.3% after CYMI reported about in line with results and said its sees revenue declining in Q4. Shares ended down 0.9% the next day.
On July 24, 2008, CYMI declined 1.6% in after-hours trade despite reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. It headed deeper in the red the next day, losing 10% by the close on July 25.
On April 22, 2008, CYMI leaped 19.2% in after-hours action after posting better-than-expected results and guidance. It cut back that gain a bit in the April 23 regular session, closing the day with a 15.4% rise.
On Jan. 29, 2008, the stock tumbled 15% after guiding for a Q1 miss. The stock dropped 20% the next day.
On Oct. 23, the stock edged up 0.2% after CYMI reported revenues that beat and guided largely higher. The gain improved to 4% the next day.
On July 26, 2007, CYMI ended the night session flat after missing Q2 sales estimates and forecasting Q3 sales to be flat versus Q2. Shares, though, jumped 15.3% by the end of the next day's regular session.
On April 24, 2007, CYMI declined 6.6% in after-hours action after missing Q1 estimates and guiding for Q2 sales flat with Q1. It held much of that decline through the next day, losing 6.3% by the April 25 close.
On Jan. 30, 2007, CYMI gained 3.8% in night trade after beating Q4 sales estimates. Shares rose further the next day, closing the regular session up 4.5%.
On Oct. 24, 2006, the stock tumbled 13% in the evening hours with traders largely focused on the company's disappointing outlook. Shares scratched back to record a 0.5% gain the next day.
On July 25, 2006, CYMI slid 17.6% after missing Q2 estimates and guiding Q3 sales below Street views. Shares recovered slightly the next day, ending the regular session down 9.6%.
On April 18, 2006, CYMI jumped 7.3% in night trade after beating Q1 sales estimates and forecasting a sequential gain in Q2 sales. Shares climbed higher during the next day session, ending up 13%.
On January 31, 2006, CYMI edged up 1.6% in evening trade after beating Q4 earnings estimates and meeting sales forecasts. The shares soared the next day, ending the regular session up 10.2%.
On Oct. 18, 2005, CYMI gained 4.2% in night trade after reporting EPS was $.35 per share, well ahead of the Street view of $.20 per share. Shares jumped by a wider 8.8% in the regular session.
On July 19, 2005, shares jumped 10.9% in after hours trade on strong Q2 results. CYMI widened gains the next day, adding 16.4% in the regular session.
On April 19, 2005, CYMI rose 2.8% after hours after beating Wall Street expectations, but fell 3.2% in the April 20 regular session.
Back on Jan. 25, 2005, CYMI jumped 7.6% after the bell after beating estimates, but narrowed its gain in the Jan. 26 regular session and closed up 5.8%.
On Oct. 19, 2004, Cymer stock was hit hard in after-hours trading, ending down 6.9% after beating expectations but setting a cautious outlook. It narrowed its loss in the Oct. 20 regular session, closing down 3.9%.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.