As most sophisticated investors and traders are aware, the U.S. federal government has run up significant deficits and the long term debt burden is becoming a drain on Gross Domestic Product. That being said, most economists are discussing the possibility of a major decline in the value of the U.S. dollar going forward as inflationary monetary policy begins to strangle growth. While that view point may prove right over the long haul, in the short run most traders are not likely expecting the U.S. dollar to rally.
The U.S. dollar is expected to reach a multi-year cycle low in the near future. From the cyclical low, I expect the U.S. dollar to regain a strong footing and work higher against the crowd. This is not to say that the U.S. dollar will not eventually decline, but financial markets do not work that easily. Shorting the U.S. dollar is a crowded trade and Mr. Market punishes crowded trades quite often by pushing prices the opposite of what the heard is expecting. Should the U.S. dollar find a strong underlying bid, precious metals and domestic equities would feel the brunt force of such a move. While it remains to be seen if the U.S. dollar rallies, if it does it will catch many traders and economists by surprise and the unwinding of the short dollar trade could unleash a wave of selling that we have not seen for quite some time.
We have seen some exciting moves in the market and with the market sentiment so bullish it should make for a sharp selloff in the coming weeks. Meaning everyone is overly bullish and owns a lot of stocks and commodities; therefore the market should top and leave them holding the bag while the smart money runs for the door. The market will not bottom until all of these individuals holding the bag finally cannot take the pain of losing any more money and once we see them panic and sell them all at once only then will we be looking to go long again.
The past couple weeks I have been bombarded with emails asking if gold and silver have bottomed and if they should be buying more on these pullbacks. Those of you reading my work for the past few months know that my analysis clearly has shown how both gold and silver have been topping out. There have been strong distribution selling and price patterns on the charts are also clearly signaling a top was near.
A couple weeks ago I posted an important report covering gold, silver and the U.S. dollar and where the next big moves will be. Well it’s time for another update on gold, silver and the dollar as they have come a long way from my last report.
Take a quick 15 second look at part one charts here.
Ok let’s move on to today’s charts…
Silver Daily Chart
Silver has formed a very nice looking top and it is now trading under its key moving averages. It is also currently testing a key resistance level after Friday’s bounce on the back of fears in Egypt. Unless something happens internationally, I figure silver sill continue its trend down.
Gold Daily Chart
Gold futures are doing the same as its little sister (silver). I feel the general public is still very bullish on metals and before we see higher prices (new highs) the market will have to shake the majority out of their positions first. At this time gold looks like it should test the $1285 level. Depending on how long it takes to get there and the price action it forms in the following days that outlook could change but expect sellers to step in at the $1350-1355 area.
US Dollar 2 Hour Chart
The dollar has been grinding lower the past two weeks forming a falling wedge reversal pattern. It’s also important to note that on the daily chart the dollar tested a key support level last week. This should be an interesting week for the dollar and the rest of the market simple simply because when the dollar makes sharp movements it pushes the price of stocks and commodities around in a big way.
I am looking for a multi week rally in the dollar possibly longer but with small pauses or corrections along the way.
Pre-Week Metals and Dollar Trend Analysis
In short, I feel gold and silver are nearing a short term resistance level and will find selling pressure in the coming days only to continue on their journey down for a few weeks. The dollar on the other hand broke out of its falling wedge on Friday and could have a strong rally for 2-3 days. I feel most traders and investors have been shorting the dollar for two weeks straight, so once they realize it’s going higher there will be a ton of short covering and the dollar should rip higher.
This shift in the dollar from down to up has a direct effect on the SP500 and subscribers of my newsletter are going to take full advantage of these next big moves in the market.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a short position in GLD over the next 72 hours.