The ETFs used in my High-Probability, Mean-Reversion indicator are mostly in a neutral state, with XLE being the only one in an extreme state. The RSI (2) of XLE is still lower than 95, so a trade will not be considered unless the ETF pushes over that short-term level.
When short-term readings are neutral, patience is required. Overtrading is the downfall to many a trader and strategy.
As I state right on my website:
Patience is the key ingredient to the success of my strategies, and forcing a trade is, in most cases, detrimental to any strategy. My strategies require patience coupled with a disciplined approach. Waiting for the appropriate scenario to recommend trades with a high probability of success is what makes the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy successful.
Losing trades are a definite. It is how they are managed over the long-term that proves the success of a strategy, and I think I have shown over the past few years that I have managed the strategy appropriately. The performance speaks for itself. Capital preservation is one of the key elements of my strategies, and I insist on a disciplined, risk-management approach so that the strategy will have the best chance at long-term success.
I am a realist; I realize there is no holy grail in trading. However, one thing I do know for certain is that I have found a unique and concrete strategy that makes a world of sense to me, and I trade it to make serious money over the long-term. Furthermore, I realize that the less I trade, the better my strategy will perform over the long run -- and the long run is what matters. This is what makes the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy unique and, so far, successful.
Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator – as of close 2/02/11
- S&P 500 (SPY) – 64.7 (neutral)
- Dow Jones (DIA) 69.7 (neutral)
- Russell 2000 (IWM) – 59.4 (neutral)
- NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ) – 59.5 (neutral)
- Biotech (IBB) – 48.8 (neutral)
- Consumer Discretionary (XLY) – 44.5 (neutral)
- Health Care (XLV) – 55.6 (neutral)
- Financial (XLF) – 58.5 (neutral)
- Energy (XLE) – 82.9 (very overbought)
- Gold Miners (GDX) – 54.6 (neutral)
- Industrial (XLI) – 63.5 (neutral)
- Materials (XLB) – 69.7 (neutral)
- Real Estate (IYR) – 70.7 (overbought)
- Retail (RTH) – 35.4 (neutral)
- Semiconductor (SMH) – 72.0 (overbought)
- United States Oil Fund (USO) – 58.5 (neutral)
- Utilities (XLU) – 49.0 (neutral)
- Brazil (EWZ) – 37.9 (neutral)
- China 25 (FXI) – 44.6 (neutral)
- EAFE (EFA) – 68.4 (neutral)
- South Korea (EWY) – 61.5 (neutral)
- Gold (GLD) – 47.4 (neutral)