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The selection of these five very special companies is based on the following supportive data and both their short and longer term performance. I expect these companies to continue to do extraordinarily well. However, we just may have to wait awhile before taking positions. Please note that I compare most all securities with (NASDAQ:AAPL) and when they get close, (in my three disciplines) I buy them confidently. Those disciplines are my weighted fundamental, technical and consensus analysis. These companies are rated and compared below with brief comments and are not in any way candidates for buying or short selling at this time.

Click to enlarge:



Earning estimates on balance for these companies are positive for the near-term, and should be improving noticeably throughout the coming year. However, you might remember that - the way the “Street” will reward or punish any company in the future is always questionable. It appears that the upside is very strong for these and a number of other similar securities. (see my valuations for each below)

My analytics, to a large degree, have to do with comparative analytics. Comparing these five companies with their peers and other top / strong growth/revenue producing companies, in general, is what I believe makes or loses you money.

Timely news for each company has been checked by me and should be reviewed by you also. Each company is unique in its own realm and yet they all check out quite well.

Historically, and within the various sectors, there are often not all that many compelling companies to consider owning and often many that should be avoided. That has to do with the “Comparative Rotational Analytics” stuff that I do. Currently these particular companies happen to be on the positive side of the ledger. My work / analytics is rather basic, most all companies rotate in and out of favor and these companies are currently in favor, and that is in “spades.” I believe that the average Investor can enjoy a better annual return on investment over the years by investing in low risk companies such as these. As you know, the trick is to know when to buy and when to sell.

My analytic focus (to invest or not to invest) on any company is most heavily weighted on fundamentals and company valuations. These five companies all appear to have the prospect of improving earnings in the longer term. For me, this is something most worthwhile to consider prior to buying. For prudent investing, those earnings will have to continue to remain strong over the next quarter or two (or more) before I would consider it be a “wise investment.” I need to see “excellent” valuations before recommending an investment.

There are not that many other companies that meet my criteria in today’s marketplace. That means two things: The projected price and the risk / reward ratio must be in the top 5% of my list of "candidates for purchase" and within a universe of what I call “quality companies.”

Fundamental Valuation Analytics Table

(Weighting 40%):

Stock and Symbol

Approx. Current Price

My Target Price % Above (+) / Below (-) Current Price – Valuation is “Tweaked.”

One Year Projections from the next - - bullish Inflection Point.

PEG

P/E

Forward P/E

Valuation Divergence (%)

One - Year Projected from a Mean – Sigma and from the next - - bullish Inflection Point.

Apple, (AAPL)

357

+ 20 to + 40+%

0.76

19.1

13.7

+39%

Comments: Obviously, this is a very good to “excellent” valuation and target price projection. When you do further Fundamental studies it looks even better. Add to that work the technical and consensus analysis and you have a conformation that AAPL is and remains a winner! It is wise to compare frequently. My work / analytics is for you to possibly take positions at a future date. However, investing at this time may not be wise.

Compare: Allstate (NYSE:ALL), Hartford HIG), Invesco (NYSE:IVZ), XL Group (NYSE:XL) and Alliance Data (NYSE:ADS) with Apple, Inc.

1. Phillips – Van Heus. (NYSE:PVH)

62.0

100 + %

1.15

131

12.8

+100+%

Comments: Obviously, this is a very good to “excellent” valuation and target price projection. When you do further Fundamental studies it looks even better. Add to that work the technical and consensus analysis and you have a conformation that PVH is and remains a winner! It is wise to compare frequently. My work / analytics is for you to possibly take positions at a future date. However, investing at this time may not be wise.

2. Canadian Solar, (NASDAQ:CSIQ)

14.4

100 + %

0.60

67,5

6.9

+100+%

Comments: Obviously, this is a very good to “excellent” valuation and target price projection. When you do further Fundamental studies it looks even better. Add to that work the technical and consensus analysis and you have a conformation that CSIQ is and remains a winner! It is wise to compare frequently. My work / analytics is for you to possibly take positions at a future date. However, investing at this time may not be wise.

3. Textron, (NYSE:TXT)

27.6

100 + %

1.04

34.0

14.4

+100+%

Comments: Obviously, this is an “excellent” valuation and target price projection. When you do further Fundamental studies it looks even better. Add to that work, the technical and consensus analysis and you have a conformation that TXT is likely to remain a winner! It is wise to compare frequently. My work / analytics is for your possible taking positions at a future date. However, investing at this time may not be wise.

4. Vishay, (NYSE:VSH)

17.8

100 + %

0.76

22.5

11.3

+50+%

Comments: Obviously, this is an “excellent” valuation and target price projection. When you do further Fundamental studies it looks even better. Add to that work, the technical and consensus analysis and you have a conformation that VSH is likely to remain a winner! It is wise to compare frequently. My work / analytics is for your possible taking positions at a future date. However, investing at this time may not be wise.

5. Eastman Chem. (NYSE:EMN)

93.3

100 + %

0.95

13.4

10.9

+50+%

Comments: Obviously, this is an “excellent” valuation and target price projection. When you do further Fundamental studies it looks even better. Add to that work, the technical and consensus analysis and you have a conformation that EMN is likely to remain a winner! It is wise to compare frequently. My work / analytics is for your possible taking positions at a future date. However, investing at this time may not be wise.

Further comments on this table with ratings for all three disciplines:

I always compare Apple, Inc. (AAPL) with my other “bellwether” companies as well as those I am considering for investment. For me, Apple is numero uno! I then do a quantitative rating for my weighted fundamental, technical, and consensus analysis. Understand that these valuations and comparisons are “current” and that is why I continuously do them.

Summery of the Three Disciplines:

Company Symbol

Fundamental

Technical

Consensus

AAPL

Very Good - Excellent

Excellent

Excellent

1. PVH

Excellent

Excellent

Good

2. CSIQ

Excellent

Excellent

Poor

3. TXT

Excellent

Excellent

Good

4. VSH

Very Good - Excellent

Excellent

Poor

5. EMN

Very Good - Excellent

Excellent

Excellent

Notes for the above tables and for your information:

  • Fundamental valuation - Data in today’s marketplace requires me to look carefully at the numbers as being either realistic or creative. That’s because more recently, financial analysts are using new/funny math and have changed the criterion on basic valuation. This is producing many valuation data inconsistencies, so I have adopted an additional procedure that I call “tweaking the results." This procedure is sometimes needed to get me back to ‘realistic’ valuations. It requires having an eye on the short and intermediate-term company price movement, but is definitely not a part of my technical analysis. My valuations also consider the two-year - forward P/E data, but is not weighted heavily. Using this procedure produces very accurate analytics for decisions at bullish and bearish inflection points.

  • Most financial analysts determine the price target range by estimating a future earnings per share and then applying a price-to-earnings multiple, also known as the price earnings ratio. I prefer to calculate price targets (high / low) for both the current and next fiscal year by applying the stock's present multiple to the average analyst's estimates and follow with some foxy "tweaking" of the results.

  • Further, I believe that there should be just two aspects of fundamental valuation. They are the 'now' and the 'later', which translates to 1-2 years and more than three years but not 10 years. Obviously, the farther out we try to project earnings and cash flow, the more inaccurate the data becomes. That is why I do my valuations rather frequently, especially around times of anticipating inflection points.

  • PEGs: You will note that some of these companies are carrying high or sometimes negative PEG ratios. I consider the PEGs very important when deciding to take positions in a given security.

The graphic below tells the earnings story very well and should be studied with a discerning mindset. This chart is for Apple, Inc. and is offered as an example of what a good earnings chart should look like. If your current investment consideration does not have a similar looking chart, I suggest you find another that does.

Click to enlarge:



As for the financial statements, all look (“look” can be a deceiving word) very good. However, nothing appears positive or compelling. In summary, the operating income, net income and balance sheet all increased/improved, and appear to be on track.

Technical thoughts/analytics

(Weighting 35%)

The price activity for these companies has continued to improve since the February 2009 lows at an awesome pace. At the next bullish inflection point these companies, amongst others should be considered for purchase. These numbers (prices) are an important consideration before making an investment decision to buy or short any security!

Technically speaking, the current marketplace position is: Over extended, over-bought, with overly exuberant investors. And interest rates are on the rise. I am waiting for this current rally to run its course and am focused on the identification of the next bearish inflection point. Currently holding cash is perhaps your most prudent investment strategy. For these companies it is pretty much the same story.

Consensus Thoughts/Analytics

(Weighting 25%)

Consensus analysis for me is very important. Please note the high percentage weighting I use. There is an old saying: If the Street does not like the company, don’t buy it. My rankings for these companies is “very good.” So for this old bearish fox, I’m very pleased with the fundamental statistics/indicators, love my technical charts and my consensus work is simply right on.

Economic Note

Economically speaking there is always a concern or question as to what the U. S. Federal Reserve Board may or may not do regarding the management of the economy. We do know that rallies have come when the Fed injects capital or fiscal stimulus into the economic system, but that is becoming an "old news" factor.

We do know that there is a great deal of hype that the economy is improving, but when you explore the numbers over a longer time frame, there remains much to be concerned about. How this plays out over the coming few years, for me, is quite problematic.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Source: 5 Company Valuations With Price Targets 50% Plus