Composite leading indicators (CLIs) for December 2010, designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, continue to point to expansion in most major OECD countries, but to a downturn in China and slowdown in India.
The CLIs for Germany, Japan and the United States point to relatively robust expansion relative to trend, while in Canada, France and the United Kingdom the CLIs point to continued moderate expansion. There are nevertheless signs of a downturn emerging in Italy.
New data for China point to a downturn, reversing the tentative signs of regained growth momentum reported in last month’s assessment. With three of its seven components pointing upward the outlook remains volatile. The CLI for India is pointing towards a slowdown. In Russia, the CLI continues to point to an expansion, while Brazil is expected to continue to perform close to its long-term trend.
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