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After the beating bonds took last week, some advisors have tried to reassure investors that the current declines are nothing more than the normal ‘first quarter’ weakness that fixed income has seen over the last few years. To test this, we looked at the annual pattern of the US Long Bond Future over the last five years. As the results below detail, while it is still early in the year, the current pattern is shaping up to be nothing like prior years.

click to enlarge
bond seasonal look

Source: Weakness in Long-term Bonds Not Just Seasonal