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Executives

Bill Horning – VP, IR

Steve Smith – Chairman and CEO

Don Lofe – EVP, CFO and Chief Administrative Officer

David Katkov – EVP and Chief Business Officer

Analysts

Douglas Harter – Credit Suisse

Nathaniel Otis – Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Mark DeVries – Barclays Capital

Matthew Howlett – Macquarie Research Equities

Matt Howlett – Macquarie Research Equities

Donna Halverstadt – Goldman Sachs

The PMI Group, Inc. (PMI) Q4 2010 Earnings Call February 15, 2011 12:00 PM ET

Operator

Hello and welcome to the Q4 2010 financial results conference call for the PMI group. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation we will conduct a question and answer session. (Operator Instructions).

Today’s conference is being recorded, if you have any objections you may disconnect at this time. Now I will turn the meeting over to Mr. Bill Horning, Vice President Investor Relations. Sir you may begin.

Bill Horning

Thanks operator. Good morning and welcome to the PMI Group’s Q4 2010 financial results conference call. Today’s call will include comments from Steve Smith, PMI’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Smith will discuss PMI’s overall principal results and other matters for Q4.

Don Lofe, PMI’s Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Administrative Officer will then address other business results for the quarter as well as other financial and capital matters.

We also have with us today David Katkov, PMI’s Executive Vice President and Chief Business Officer who along with Steve and Don will be available to answer your questions following today’s prepared remarks.

On today’s call we’ll be referencing non-generally accepted accounting principal measures such as net operating income, which under SEC Regulation G, we will require to reconcile the GAAP. These reconciliations of these measures with GAAP financial measures are available on our website.

Before we begin I would like to review the company’s safe harbor statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. During this call we may be making forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from the statements made during this call. The company’s business depends on investment considerations which are highlighted in our securities and exchange commission filings including our 2009 form 10-k and most recent form 10-q. Forward looking statements are made as of today, February 15, 2011 and we undertake no obligation to update such statements except as may be required by law.

With that I’ll turn the call over to PMI’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Steve Smith.

Steve Smith

Thanks Bill. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining today’s call. In Q4 the PMI Group had a net loss of $184.4 million or loss of $1.14 per share. On a pre-tax basis, the loss for Q4 2010 was $181.8 million compared with a loss of $368.1 million in the same period one year ago.

Our consolidated results in Q4 2010 were driven by continued high incurred losses and lower premiums earned partially offset by lower under riding and operating expenses. Our US Mortgage Insurance operations reported a net loss of $169 million in Q4 which was driven by losses and loss adjustment expenses or LAE of $281.8 million. Our international operations reported net income of $8.6 million due primarily to PMI Europe’s results.

Now let me update you on several factors affecting US MI’s Q4 results. First primary new notices of default or NODs received in Q4 totaled 28,664; down approximately 4% from Q3 and better than what historical seasonality might predict. New NODs received through December 31, 2010 of 121,244 were down approximately 24% compared to the same period one year ago. In January of this year NODs received totaled 9,730 which is approximately 34% lower than NODs received in January of 2010. And it’s also the lowest January total since 2007. From a historical perspective, NODs received in Q1 are typically highest in January.

Second, total claims paid were approximately $267 million in Q4 which is down 17% sequentially and down 49% from Q4 of 2009. Paid claims were lower in Q4 due to service imposed foreclosure moratoriums, higher levels of claim denials and lower Pool claims paid during the quarter.

Third, total gross reserves for losses and LAE declined by approximately $47 million from Q3 to $2.9 billion. US MI losses and LAE declined to $281.8 million in Q4 compared to $317.1 million in Q3 and $549.4 million in Q4 of 2009.

Losses in LAE in Q4 were driven by new notices of default and higher claim rates established for both current and prior years. We increased claim rates as of December 31, 2010 primarily as a result of lower than expected cures of defaults when in the delinquent loan inventory and the overall aging of the inventory. The higher claim rates were offset by increasing levels of claim denials.

The $47 million net change in reserves was driven by the overall decline in notices of delinquent loan inventory due to lower new notices of default, cures of existing delinquencies combined with payment of claims.

The aggregate dollar amount of delinquent primary and Pool risk enforced rescinded or denied in Q4 was approximately $272 million. As stated in our last quarterly conference call, our expectation is that rescissions will peak and will continue to decline.

As a result of the continued difficulties faced on many servicers, we expect that claim denials will remain elevated for a while. We continue to watch with interest and increased scrutiny service to performance that has emerged from Capitol Hill, the regulatory agencies and several of the state attorney generals.

Adherence to customary servicing standards is a requirement of our master policy. As many of you are aware, we record claim denials as claim paid but at a zero dollar settlement cost. The significant majority of claim denials result from the inability of servicers to produce documents necessary to perfect the claim. Claim denials during the quarter also include a small number of claims denied or curtailed as a result of harm caused to PMI by the services deviation from customary servicing standards. We expect the frequency of this type of claim denial to increase during 2011.

Primary loans in default at December 31, 2010 totaled 127,478; down from 131,891 in September 30, 2010 and 150,925 at December 31, 2009. Our default inventory has declined in each quarter throughout 2010 and we expect this trend to continue into 2011 potentially subject to seasonal fluctuation.

Now let me take a few minutes to discuss PMI’s loss mitigation efforts in more detail. For Q4 loan modifications and payment plans enabled 7,710 PMI insured borrowers representing approximately $345 million of risk enforce to attain their homes. For all of 2010 loan modification and payment plans enabled 41,258 borrowers, representing approximately $1.9 billion of risk enforced to retain their homes.

The level of loan modifications has remained elevated. Affordability based modifications which aim to lower borrower’s monthly mortgage payments are more prevalent now. We see both in our data and in publicly available data that such modifications have exhibited a lower incidence of re-default in the short term then did traditional modifications which did not lower borrowers payments.

Now let me briefly talk about new business writings. In Q4 our US Mortgage Insurance operations wrote approximately $2.2 billion of new insurance. An increase of 10% from Q3 ridings and up substantially from the $1 billion of new insurance written in Q4 of 2009. Our full year and new business writings totaled $6.7 billion, in line with the guidance we provided in Q3.

Our loan quality remains high and the private mortgage insurance industry share continues to grow modestly. We believe this opportunity will improve based upon the FHA’s announcement of price increases effective April 2011. We’re also anticipating a shift to purchase money mortgages this year and a corresponding significant decline in refinance transactions which would drive a smaller, total origination market in 2011 compared to 2010.

Historically the private mortgage insurance industry has a higher share of purchased money mortgages than refinances. Overall we expect to see continued modest increases in our full year new insurance ridings in 2011.

For details regarding our insurance portfolio, I’d like to direct you to the company’s semi-annual portfolio supplement presentation which was published this morning and can be found at our website under Investor Relations.

Finally let me take a minute to comment on the administration’s white paper that was released last Friday. This paper provided a broad outline for the changes the administration believes needs to occur relative to key market participants in the housing finance system; FHA, the GSEs and Private Capital. Importantly the administration made a strong and deliberate statement about their desire to reduce the size of the FHA program and encourage robust private sector involvement. As I referenced earlier, the announcement on Monday regarding an FHA premium increase is the first step in this process. The White House 2012 budget also released yesterday assumes a rollback in the loan limits for FHA.

The release of the administration’s white paper marks the official start of the congressional debate on GSE reform. There will be a great deal of discussion on the three options outlined by the administration. The degree of government involvement varies in each of the options but all three would result in the private sector playing a dominant role in providing mortgage credit. Given the likely shift to a greater reliance on the private sector, we believe the private mortgage insurance industry will play an important role in the future of the nation’s housing market. PMI will continue to be an active participant in what promises to be a long process to reshape our country’s housing finance system.

Now let me turn the call over to Don to cover the additional details of Q4 results as well as other capital and liquidity matters. Don–

Don Lofe

Thank you Steve and good morning. In Steve’s opening remarks he gave our consolidated results for Q4. Now let me take a few moments to discuss the results of each segment in more detail.

Within US Mortgage Insurance Operations, we had a net loss of $169 million in Q4 of 2010 as compared to a net loss of $242 million in Q4 of last year. Our Q4 results compare with the same period one year ago were primarily driven by lower incurred losses and lower other underwriting and operating expenses offset by lower premiums earned and net investment income as well as the change from a tax benefit position to no tax benefit position as a result of last quarter’s increase in the evaluation allowance of our deferred tax asset.

At December 31, 2010 our gross reserve to losses and loss adjustment expenses (inaudible) at approximately $2.9 billion dollars. PMI’s losses recoverable from reinsurance decline from year-end 2009 but remains approximately $460 million dollars.

Total claims paid including loss adjustment expenses were approximately $267 million for Q4, down from Q3 paid claims of approximately $323 million. The decrease from Q3 was primarily driven by servicer imposed foreclosure moratorium during the quarter, higher levels of claim denials and lower Pool claims paid.

For the full year 2010 total claims paid, including LAE totaled approximately $1.3 billion as compared with approximately $1.4 billion the same period one year ago. In 2011 we would expect claims paid to approximate 210 levels or to be moderately lower as delinquent loans continue to work their way through the process.

At December 31, 2010 our primary insurance enforced totaled approximately $102 billion and our risk enforce was approximately $25 billion; both of which decreased 11% from year-end 2009. For risk enforce at December 31 was $606 million, down from $1.1 billion at December 31, 2009.

Now with regard to statuary capital (inaudible) works insurance company it ended Q4 with a risk to capital ratio of 19.9:1 an excess minimum policyholder position of approximately $184 million. Our current 2011 operating plan does not reflect a breach of risk to capital or minimum policyholder position in 2011. However, to the extent we experience higher than plan losses and (inaudible) capital relief initiatives, reinsurance or additional capital, we most likely would reach these regulatory metrics in 2011.

Accordingly, we requested an MPT waiver from the Arizona Department of Insurance in January and we are currently in the process of providing the department with information necessary for the department to determine whether it will issue PMI Mortgage Insurance Company a waiver as it did in early 2010.

As you may recall, the department withdrew the waiver shortly after infusion of capital into PMI in April of 2010. Now less than a year ago we referenced our indicative portfolio profitability and since then we’ve been asked to update this.

Now let me direct you to slide six in our supplemental portfolio presentation posted on our website. This slide shows our estimate of the indicative profitability of our domestic insurance portfolio as of December 31, 2010 over a ten-year period. Utilizing a discounted cash flow methodology for the expected future premiums and losses of the insurance portfolio, we estimated present value for these categories. Offsetting these against one another and then against current reserves in our projected captive benefit we currently estimate an embedded indicative profitability of approximately $616 million at December 31, 2010. As discussed in the slide, this estimate is based upon a number of assumptions including future economic factors and their impact on the portfolio and future loan modifications, workout decision and claim denial activity. As a result of the inherent uncertainty with (inaudible) assumptions, there can be no assurance that this portfolio will ultimately achieve such profitability.

Now moving to our international operations. The segment reported net income for Q4 of 2010 a base point $6 million as compared to a net loss of $2.9 million in Q4 of last year. Net income for the quarter was driven by lower incurred losses and operating expenses as well as higher premiums earned.

PMI Europe has been actively reducing its risk enforce and ended Q4 of 2010 with $674 million of risk enforced as compared to $2 billion at the end of last quarter and down significantly from $4.9 billion at December 31, 2009. We expect to repatriate capital from PMI Europe and PMI Canada, The PMI mortgage insurance company as early as the first half of 2011.

As shifting to our investment portfolio, as we discussed last quarter and in light of our current and future expected tax position, we have repositioned our investment portfolio away from tax advantage municipal bond into taxable investment. This repositioning resulted in us harvesting approximately $97 million in investment gains through 2010 as well as significantly reducing the duration of our portfolio. Even with this repositioning, during Q4 we still were affected by the rise in short term interest rate. The increase in rates resulted in a $58 million reduction to our unrealized investment gain position as of Q3. This was recorded within our balance sheet as a reduction in our accumulated other comprehensive income and resulted in a $.36 reduction in our book value as of year-end.

Now let me take a moment to update you on taxes. At December 31, 2010 our net deferred tax assets were approximately $143 million and we do not expect any future material charge against these assets. We expect to realize $82 million of $143 million upon the (inaudible) of the QBE note and the associated profit sharing component of the reinsurance agreement on the related insurance portfolio in September of 2011.

We expect almost the entire amount of our deferred tax assets, growth of our evaluation allowance of approximately $670 million will not be recovered before we return to a period with the same profitability. Prior to that time we expect future losses to increase the gross deferred tax asset and the corresponding evaluation allowance. As a result, we expect to have neither a tax benefit nor charge within the income statement.

With regard to holding company matters, the PMI group ended Q4 with available cash and liquid investment of approximately $79 million. As in prior quarters and as I briefly mentioned in my tax commentary, let me update you on the value for the pledge note related to our sale team in Australia, again, what we refer to as the QBE note. At December 31, 2010 the (inaudible) value of the QBE note was $202.7 million representing the original principal amount of $187 million plus the accrual of interest since October of 2008. Assuming full pay out of the note, we will realize a maturity in 2011 of approximately $208 million which again includes accrued interest. This note is currently an off balance sheet asset due to its contingent nature.

As you may recall, the amount we ultimately receive under the QBE note is subject to the actual and projected loss performance of PMI Australia’s policies in force as of June 3rd, 2008. We do not expect, as of December 31st, 2010 that the ultimate projected losses on this portfolio will trigger any reduction in the QBE note value. Given the recent performance of the Australia housing market and the continued runoff of this portfolio as well as the seasoning, we expect full repayment of the note at its maturity.

Additionally, as we discussed last quarter, assuming repayment of the QBE note, PMI mortgage insurance company will realize two capital inflows totaling $50 million in September of this year. The first capital inflow of $25 million comes directly from QBE as part of the excess of loss reinsurance agreement in connection with the sales (inaudible) Australia. The second capital inflow of $25 million will come from our holding company per the agreement at the time of the transfer of the QBE note from the operating company to the holding company in 2009. Assuming full payment of the QBE note and the $25 million dollar profit commission on the reinsurance agreement in 2011 and the effect of associated taxes, we would expect to see an increase in our book value of approximately $.94 per share at that time.

Now before we get to the question and answer portion of the call, let me take a few moments to bring to your attention certain new disclosures we’ve added to the financial supplement this quarter.

Beginning on page 14, we now provide our primary average claim size (inaudible) from reinsurance and excluding claim denials. We also give the average primary claim size net of reinsurance in claim denials, which we think is a more useful indicator. In Q4 this number was $30,600. You can see the quarterly trend in this figure is generally moving down as a result of higher levels of claim denials.

On page 15 we now break out for you the losses in LAE by the three delinquency aging buckets. And also on slide 15 we disclose an allocation of primary reserves in LAE by particular loan type as an example, of A, less than A and so on.

On page 16 we now provide the loans in default by year of origination and the associated reserves for losses in LAE.

And finally on slide 8 of our supplemental portfolio presentation, you will see average primary reserve by notice of default using two delinquency report calculations. The first is how PMI reports an NOD which is two payments past due which can be as early as 31 days after the first missed payment. On this basis our primary reserve for NOD is $21,646. The second calculation is based on two missed payments or 60 days after the first missed payment. On the 60-day convention, our primary reserve for NOD is $23,955.

And finally I would like to direct those interested in a reconciliation of our consolidated net loss to our consolidated net operating loss to review the disclosure material posted on our website. As presented in the reconciliation on our website, our consolidated net operating loss in Q4 of 2010 was $172.4 million or $1.07 per common share loss.

With that let me open up the call for questions. Operator–

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

(Operator Instructions.) Our first question comes from Doug Harter from Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Douglas Harter – Credit Suisse

Thanks. I was wondering if you could give a little bit more clarity to the comments about Europe and Canada being able to repay capital to the US. Anyway we could size that?

Don Lofe

Hi Doug, it’s Don. Let me give you a- we cannot give the total dollar amount that we’re expecting for repatriation in the first half but let me give you a sense of the actual equity balances on US dollars. Canada has approximately $17 million of equity balances out as of 12/31/2010 and that’s US dollars. And Europe has approximately $137 million equity as of 12/31. We’re in the process of evaluating the amount that we could ultimately repatriate.

Douglas Harter – Credit Suisse

And could you give us the corresponding balances of how much risk is remaining at each of those?

Don Lofe

Yes. On European risk is approximately $674 million dollars at 12/31/2010 and most of that risk is resident in the UK in the United States. And with respect to Canada, let me get that number for you and I’ll give that to you on the call here.

Douglas Harter – Credit Suisse

Great. Thank you.

Don Lofe

Thanks Doug.

Operator

Our next question comes from Nat Otis with KBW. Your line is open.

Nathaniel Otis – Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Yeah, good morning. Just two quick questions. First, did you say that paid claims in 2011 would be flat or possibly down slightly with 2010? I just want to clarify that.

Don Lofe

Nat it’s Don and yes I did say that.

Nathaniel Otis – Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Okay and that includes factoring in any possible increase associated with that foreclosure moratorium?

Steve Smith

Yes it does Nat.

Nathaniel Otis – Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Okay great. Second question, just from a reserving standpoint, there’s been talk recently and obviously you mentioned it earlier about rescissions coming down in the market. Was there any component to your reserve in this quarter that factored in decrease in rescission expectations going forward?

Don Lofe

Nat it’s Don. No we did not factor in any negative adjustment related to rescissions.

Nathaniel Otis – Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

Steve Smith

Yeah, thanks Nat.

Operator

Our next question comes from Mark DeVries from Barclays Capital.

Mark DeVries – Barclays Capital

Yeah thanks. Steve, I’d be interested to get your thoughts on what, you know, under a new reconstituted Fannie/Freddie a possible 10% minimum down payment might mean for the mortgage insurance industry?

David Katkov

Hi, this is David Katkov. I think it’s a little speculative right now to know what kind of effect a 10% down would have on our company. I would however point out that given our distressed markets policy over the last several years, the vast majority of the business that we are riding is 90% or below in LTD so I think it’s an environment we can certainly operate in.

And then I think again, being careful not to speculate here, even if there was some sort of requirement for 10% down, as you know, the banking regulations for high LTD lending today requires some form of credit risk mitigation for loans that have an LTD over 90. So it’s our sense that even with a change that may or may not occur with the GSEs we would have an opportunity to provide insurance on loans with LTDs of 95 and to the extent we’re interested, 97.

Mark DeVries – Barclays Capital

Okay. And have you guys heard anything new on what the status is for QRM?

David Katkov

It’s an excellent question. I’ve been told by people in Washington it may be one of the best kept secrets ever there in a town that doesn’t keep secrets very well. And so the short answer is no. We expect to see something coming out but I’m not able to tell you what it will look like or when it will happen.

Mark DeVries – Barclays Capital

And what’s related expectations for timing on that.

David Katkov

Again, I don’t know. They’re way late. They initially thought it would be Thanksgiving and then after the first of the year. I’m hearing what you’ve probably read in the press, which is maybe in March, maybe in April. The only thing we know for certain, so let me at least clarify that, is that Dodd-Frank says that whatever QRM regulations are finally put in place are supposed to be effective in April of 2012.

Mark DeVries – Barclays Capital

Okay, thank you.

Steve Smith

Thanks Mark.

Don Lofe

Operator, before we proceed to the next call I’d like to come back to the question that Doug Harter asked on the Canadian enforce. That number at 12/31/2010 is approximately $22 million dollars US.

Operator

Our next question comes from Matthew Howlett with Macquarie. Your line is open.

Matthew Howlett – Macquarie Research Equities

Hey guys. Thanks for updating the indicative profitability. Can I just ask you a few questions on that? What’s the general forecast for home price appreciation in that estimate and jobs, unemployment?

Steve Smith

Matthew this is Steve. I would encourage you to go to our website, the PMI website where we have our updated, what we call our hammer as well as our economic rule of state trend reports and our forecast and actually we’re going to be updating those. It will be out this week and that will give you guidance for the next three years. Generally what we’re expecting for this year is modestly decreasing unemployment, a pickup in purchase money for sales in existing home sales but generally modest pickups, a decline in the overall origination market due to less refinance volume and modestly increasing a 30 year fixed rate rates in the short term but rising as you go through 2012 and 2013. So a modest pickup in sales in the second half of the year and generally modest increases for the next couple years thereafter.

Matt Howlett – Macquarie Research Equities

Okay, great. We’ll wait for those. And then I just, to drill down on just a few more questions. On the average persistency, the 74%, that would be 10% down from where it is. Where it was in Q4 is that just higher involuntary or voluntary speeds that you expect as you sort of just run the book off. And then two, could you get us what the average or the CDR on the current, on this assumption, on the current paying book. What’s the default rate that we can assume, that you’re assuming on what’s currently paying today that will default over the next ten years?

David Katkov

Matt, with respect to your first point, the 74% average persistent, that’s long term average rate as the book (inaudible) comment. And with respect to the delinquency, we’re not prepared to give that type of detail at this point in time but we’ve considered obviously that effect as the book runs off and the ultimate on discount of primary and fully paid claims in associate LAE.

Matt Howlett – Macquarie Research Equities

Okay, but just on the average (inaudible) you would expect the voluntary (inaudible) as it runs up to be higher in the next ten years then they were in Q4? Is that on the voluntary side or the involuntary side? I mean how do we sort of equate those two things?

David Katkov

We didn’t really cut it that fine. And again I’ll just trust my comment a minute ago that we looked this over along the ten-year period and based upon what our view was of that, that it would roll off as an average 74% over that time.

Matt Howlett – Macquarie Research Equities

Okay, great. Thanks for the update.

Operator

Our next question comes from Donna Halverstadt with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Donna Halverstadt – Goldman Sachs

Good morning everybody. I just had one quick follow up. In response to a prior question, you said there were no negative adjustments in reserve to rescissions coming down. You also said you expect denials to remain elevated. Was there any positive adjustment in reserves related to that expectation over denials?

Steve Smith

Donna, this is Steve. Obviously we consider both in the reserving process and we did see an upward trend in claim denials and that was factored into the reserving process.

Donna Halverstadt – Goldman Sachs

Was it factored into future expectations or just the current quarter?

Steve Smith

We factored into the current quarter as well as we consider that relative to the future affect. But again it was considered.

Donna Halverstadt – Goldman Sachs

Thank you.

Operator

(Operator Instructions). At this time I’m showing no further questions. I’d like to turn the call back over to Mr. Bill Horning.

Bill Horning

Thanks operator and this concludes our question and answer portion of today’s call. Thank you all for joining us on today’s conference call and as always we thank you for your ownership, support and interest in the PMI Group.

Steve Smith

Thank you.

Don Lofe

Thanks everybody.

David Katkov

Thank you.

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