It still represents a staggering head wind for the economy, but yesterday’s report from the Mortgage Bankers Association might at least indicate that we are at the end of the worst of the mortgage crisis.
First, take a look at this from Calculated Risk.com (click for a larger image).
Overall, the delinquency rate for all loans decreased to 8.22%. This is a 91 basis points reduction from Q3 and a decrease of 125 basis points from the same period a year ago. Delinquencies in all of the buckets decreased save for the foreclosure bucket which increased to 4.63% a jump of 24 basis points from Q3. The MBA suggests that the increase was fueled by the expiration of foreclosure moratorium initiatives which sounds reasonable.
You always want to take seriously Calculated Risk’s thoughts on the housing industry, so when he says this it’s of note:
Yesterday it was announced that an enforcement action (and probable fines) against the mortgage servicers is imminent. As part of any agreement, I expect the servicers will be moving ahead with both more modifications – and also with more foreclosure sales – so the percent of loans in the foreclosure process might have peaked (or will peak in Q1 2011).
I don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest that the worst might be behind us as far as housing goes, but the healing process is going to be quite long.