Economic Calendar: Don't Miss These Critical Monthly Indicators

by: Econ Grapher

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 28th of February 2011. This week is a busy one indeed: The PMI readings for February will be out for all the key economies, with the critical U.S. and China readings taking the spotlight. In monetary policy, the RBA, BoC and ECB all meet (albeit most likely to do nothing but talk). And of course Q4 2010 GDP results are out this week for Australia, Canada, and the EU. Last but not least, the U.S. nonfarm payrolls on Friday are widely expected to mark a good end to the week.

(More commentary follows the table)

Date GMT Country/
Event Forecast Previous
SUN 23:15 JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI 51.40
SUN 23:50 JPY Industrial Production (YoY) 5.90% 4.90%
SUN 23:50 JPY Retail Trade (YoY) -1.50% -2.10%
MON 05:00 JPY Housing Starts (YoY) 5.10% 7.50%
MON 05:00 JPY Annualized Housing Starts 0.871M 0.861M
MON 10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) 1.20% 1.10%
MON 10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) 2.40% 2.40%
MON 13:30 CAD Current Account (BoP) (Canadian dollar) -$17.5B
MON 13:30 CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) 0.30% 0.40%
MON 13:30 CAD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 3.00%
MON 13:30 CAD Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Annualized 2.90% 1.00%
MON 13:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) 0.80% 0.70%
MON 14:45 USD Chicago Purchasing Manager 68.00 68.80
MON 22:30 AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index 46.70
MON 23:30 JPY Household Spending (YoY) -3.30%
MON 23:30 JPY Jobless Rate 4.90% 4.90%
MON 00:30 AUD Current Account Balance (Australian Dollar) -7830M
MON 00:30 AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) 0.20%
MON 01:00 CNY PMI Manufacturing 52.10 52.90
MON 02:00 NZD ANZ Commodity Price 3.80%
MON 02:30 CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI 54.50
MON 03:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision 4.75% 4.75%
TUE 07:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) -0.20% -1.10%
TUE 08:55 EUR German Unemployment Change -13K -13K
TUE 08:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. 7.40% 7.40%
TUE 08:55 EUR German PMI Manufacturing 62.60 62.60
TUE 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing 59.00 59.00
TUE 09:30 GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing 61.50 62.00
TUE 10:00 EUR Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) 2.40% 2.40%
TUE 10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate 10.00% 10.00%
TUE 11:00 EUR Italian Annual Gross Domestic Product 1.10% -5.10%
TUE 14:00 CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%
TUE 15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing 60.50 60.80
TUE 00:30 AUD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 2.70%
TUE 00:30 AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) 0.20%
WED 05:00 USD Fed's Beige Book
WED 10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) 5.60% 5.30%
WED 13:15 USD ADP Employment Change 185K 187K
WED 15:00 USD Bernanke Semiannual Testimony at House
WED 19:00 USD Fed Releases Beige Book Economic Survey
WED 01:00 CNY China Non-manufacturing PMI 56.40
THU 09:30 GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services 54.50
THU 10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) 0.30% 0.30%
THU 10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) 2.00% 2.00%
THU 10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Government Expenditure (QoQ) 0.40%
THU 12:45 EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%
THU 13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
THU 13:30 USD Continuing Claims
THU 15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite 59.70 59.40
FRI 13:30 USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls 183K 36K
FRI 13:30 USD Change in Private Payrolls 182K 50K
FRI 13:30 USD Unemployment Rate 9.10% 9.00%
FRI 13:30 USD Average Weekly Hours 34.30 34.20
FRI 13:30 USD Unit Labor Costs -0.60% -0.60%
FRI 15:00 CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index 41.40
FRI 15:00 USD Factory Orders 2.20% 0.20%

As noted, we're just about to start the month of March, so the PMI data for February will start trickling out this week. The key ones to watch will be the China PMIs (HSBC and CFLP), with some early readings pointing to a possible dip; the China reading could well disappoint with monetary policy tightening starting to ratchet up. The other key one is the U.S. ISM PMI -- both the non-manufacturing and the manufacturing -- where consensus sees a small increase and decrease, respectively. These indexes, and their sub-indexes, will provide a good high frequency update on these two key economies.

Moving on to GDP, Canada is expected to show an annualized rate of 2.9% for Q4 2010. While an economy that's seen a similar experience with commodities and a relatively light passing through the global recession; namely Australia, is likely to show another quarter of growth as the recovery broadens from the commodities sector through to the rest of the economy. On the Euro-Zone, quarterly growth is expected at 0.3% with year on year growth seen at 2%.

On the monetary policy front, the Reserve Bank of Australia is up first with a strong likelihood of no change, with the Queensland floods probably spurring a hold in the RBA's tightening cycle. Next is the Bank of Canada, which is likewise expected to hold steady, and the European Central Bank later in the week will also probably hold rates and other policy. The key will be to dig into the accompanying statements to get a gauge of the key issues the Central Banks are thinking about. In the U.S., Bernanke testifies to the House and the Fed puts out the Beige Book.

Elsewhere, the other key piece is the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to show a much better result in February compared to January, but paradoxically, as the jobs situation gets better in the U.S. the unemployment rate may actually rise as more "discouraged" workers become "unemployed," i.e. actively looking for work (as opposed to not being counted; thus are the mysterious workings of the participation rate). Other interesting bits this week include U.S. factory orders, EU CPI, EU unemployment, German employment numbers, U.K. house prices, and Japan's jobless rate.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates.

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Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.