Is China Growing Old Before It Grows Rich?

China faces some enormous developing demographic problems: two few women of marriageable age, too many old people and too little retirement protection for most people.

Because of the one-child program, families aborted or otherwise caused that one-child to be male, so much that today the natural balance of men and women of marrying age is becoming a problem. Too many men and not enough women. It is probably not reasonable to assume that those excess men will simply accept their numeric inability to find a mate. Something has to give.

Single men are more likely to be difficult to manage during any civil unrest than married men with family responsibilities.

Unmarried men are probably more likely to leave the country seeking mates and opportunity in other lands. The Chinese expat diaspora will likely grow due to the male/female ratio problem. But of necessity more Chinese expats will marry outside of their culture and language due to the simple population mathematics. What will be the consequences for China? What will be the consequences for the "offshore Chinese"?

As the Monterey Herald article below points out, China is growing old before it grows rich. The result will be huge numbers of old people without personal savings sufficient for retirement and an inadequate government income safety net. Add that to the environmental problems arising in China due to rapid development without strong environmental protection and you have a government with a large headache coming on.

All is not as well in China as it sometimes seems. They certainly are progressing as a world power, but they have serious demographic problems beneath the surface. How will those unfold in terms of geopolitical behavior and general economic performance?

The following excerpt from the Monterey Herald yesterday addresses the aging population problem:

"A generation after China adopted its unprecedented one-child policy, the world's most populous nation is aging faster than any major country in history. The graying of the population, lost in the astonishing statistics on China's economy, threatens to hinder future growth and strain a frayed public-welfare system.

...They are looking at 400 million old people, 30 years from now, the vast majority of whom will not have pensions or health care or extended family...The problem is a peculiar side effect of progress. For most of Chinese history, people over 60 rarely numbered more than 7 out of every 100 people. But improved health care, sanitation and living standards since the Communist Revolution have allowed the average citizen to live more than 30 years longer than in 1949. At the same time, China has restricted family size since the late 1970s in an attempt to control population growth ...Feeding the people is the most common problem in developing countries, and taking care of the elderly is the most common problem in developed countries. China has to solve both at the same time."

Comments

[QVM Group:]

By coincidence, CNN today posted a video about the imbalance of males and females in China. They also reported the official government estimate of 30 million excess marriage age males by 2020.

2007 Jan 31 11:55 AM

[Richard Bru...:]

China is an aging society, and many may be surprised to know that Shanghai is one of China's oldest with 18%+ of the population over the age of 60.

If you are interested in a raw look, please visit to see our recent article . We also have a map of China's aging population

It is an issue that everyone in China, yes.. that includes multinational companies, will have to worry about as the central government looks for solutions (look at new labor law, reform of health care system, clean up of pension scandals).

2007 Feb 06 01:34 PM

[QVM Group:]

Thanks, Rich.

Your hyperlink did not come through. Note sure if a spam blocker killed it or if something else happend. Please try again. If that doesn't work, I would like to see the page you reference. Perhaps you would email me the link at Richard.Shaw@QVMgroup....

2007 Feb 06 01:45 PM

[Richard Bru...:]

Richard,

sorry, I am not very tech savvy.

allroadsleadtochina.co... is the general site
allroadsleadtochina.co... is the site for Going Big on Going Gray
allroadsleadtochina.co... is the site for the map of graying trends in China

Thanks
rich

2007 Feb 06 11:09 PM