By Bryan McCormick
MBA Purchase Applications kicks off the day at 7 a.m. ET. There are no forecasts available for the mortgage report, which has several components.
Traders focus on purchases because it indicates new economic activity, as opposed to refinancing. Last week purchases came in at 172.8. A number that comes in higher than that by 5 percent or more would be bullish; a reading that is lower by the same percentage would bearish.
Wholesale Trade comes out at 10 a.m. ET. There are two components of this release: inventories and sales. Inventories are expected to show a gain of 0.8 percent from last month, and sales are expected to grow by a smaller 0.5 percent. The ranges for both components are quite wide.
The low end of estimates for inventories is just 0.2 percent, a small amount that small would suggest declining confidence in future sales. At the high end of expectations, inventories are forecast to rise by 1.2 percent.
Sales are seen rising by a bearish 0.3 percent at the low end and by a bullish 1.5 percent at the high end. The ideal scenario is for both sales and inventories to show growth, with sales growing faster than inventories.
The EIA Petroleum Status Report will be released at 10:30 a.m. ET. Before the EIA data comes out, the American Petroleum Institute releases a competing report based on its own supply data.
The forecast for both reports was for a small build of 0.3 million barrels. But the API release, which came out last night after the market closed, showed a larger build of 3.82 million barrels instead.
If the EIA data confirms this build or reports an even larger one, it could be bearish for crude pricing. If the build is smaller than the API's 3.82 million barrels or is a negative number showing a draw, it could be bullish for oil.
The EIA is a government body, and the API is a private industry group. The two reports do not always agree either in terms of amount or direction.
