Cramer's Mad Money - Finisar Made Too Many Hot Potatoes (3/10/11)

by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Thursday March 10.

Can You See a Blindside Coming? ARM Holdings (NASDAQ:ARMH), Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM), SanDisk (SNDK), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Finisar (NASDAQ:FNSR), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), JDS Uniphase (JDSU), Ciena (NASDAQ:CIEN), Oplink Communications (NASDAQ:OPLK)

How can you see a blindside coming? Finisar (FNSR) was annihilated, down 15 points in one session, a full 39%. Tablet stocks also got pummeled. Who could have seen this coming? JPMorgan released research that, since Apple's (AAPL) iPad is so superior to other tablets, competing companies and their parts suppliers were going to face an inventory glut, as Apple's iPad would outsell other tablets. This so-called "tablet bubble" sent down ARM Holdings (ARMH), Qualcomm (QCOM), and SanDisk (SNDK). Cramer said that while he discussed Apple as "the great destroyer" of other tech names, he didn't imagine the company could have such a devastating effect on the competition, and what he thought was a bull market in tablets, was really just a bull market in the iPad. While other companies can produce similar technology to Apple's, no one else can do so at such a low price.

Finisar, the optical component company, reported a disappointing quarter and sent other optical plays like JDS Uniphase (JDSU), Ciena (CIEN) and Oplink Communications (OPLK) down with it. While the buildout in video seemed to be an irrefutable bullish thesis, there are network buildouts going on all over the world, and Chinese companies are just not ordering any more. Either China's 3G buildout is finished or the orchestrated slowdown in the country's economy is affecting demand. "This is a hot potato issue, and Finisar made too many hot potatoes." The uncertainty over what really happened is also a reason to stay away. It could just be Finisar's problem and other optical stocks could be unfairly punished. It is too hard to know and these stocks are too hard to buy.

How to protect yourself against these blindsides? Some are just impossible to foresee, but an important strategy is to remember to take gains and not to be too greedy. Cramer recommended viewers sell Nvidia (NVDA) after its $180 gain, and those who sold missed a heavy decline. Selling gains limits downsides which are sometimes inevitable.

CEO Interview: Daniel Ustian, Navistar (NYSE:NAV)

On down days like Thursday, it is important to remember to go back to the bull markets that are working. In spite of high oil prices, trucking is still a hot sector because fleets are old and need to be replaced to comply with ever tightening safety and environmental standards. During the recession, companies delayed these essential replacements, but now time is running out. This is good news for Navistar (NAV) which has 19% market share in class 8 heavy duty trucks. Some estimate the stock could rise an additional 25% even though the company reported a not-so-spectacular quarter with a 7 cents earnings miss on revenues declining 2.3%.

However, Cramer thinks the story about fleet replacement is so compelling, he is more interested in Navistar's future than its past. The fact the stock was one of the few that rose during Thursday's terrible session is a bullish sign, and the stock is one of the cheapest in the space; it trades at a multiple of 12 with a 16% growth rate. The stock is up 19% since Cramer recommended it in June of last year.

Daniel Ustian expects to see a 40% increase in production for 2011, and doesn't think oil price will hurt business, since new regulation require fleet replacement. Pent-up demand and an improving economy will also fuel the truck bull market. Ustian doesn't think Navistar will have to cut prices to gain market share, but prefers the strategy of producing a great product with effective distribution. While commodity prices are rising dramatically, Ustian told Cramer that half the costs are hedged and half can be passed onto customers. With hot spots in the world heating up, demand is likely to increase for Navistar's military vehicles; "We think we are one of the best players in those spaces."

"Yours was the one green stock on my screen today," Cramer told Ustian; "I like a bull market within a huge sell-off, because you made a lot of money if you were in Navistar."

Is Cramer Abandoning His Bullish Gold Thesis? SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD)

There are rumors that Cramer is no longer bullish on gold, but Cramer says this is based on a misunderstanding of some advice he gave. When he told a viewer to dump gold, he was speaking as if he were a short-term trader, because the precious metal has seen a huge move and there is likely to be some short-term pain. However, for investors who view gold as a currency and want to invest in the long-term, he recommends taking the pain and staying long gold. With rising global demand, political instability in the Mid-East and inflation, gold's bullish thesis has not gone away, but there might be a short-term pause. He recommends buying SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), and predicts gold will reach $2,000.

How to Predict a Good Blindside? Tupperware (NYSE:TUP), Saks (NYSE:SKS), Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN), Brown-Forman (NYSE:BF.A), Whole Foods (WFMI), Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG)

No one wants to get blindsided and lose money, but sometimes it feels just as bad or even worse to not foresee amazing gains in certain stocks. For investors who are obsessed with spreadsheets and numbers and forget about subjective factors, it can be easy to miss a trend that can send up certain stocks.

Everyone underestimated Saks (SKS) which delivered a stunning 15% increase in February same store sales when The Street was expecting just a 5% rise. The company was performing badly for so long no one believed it would do something right. "But if you go into their stores," Cramer said, "you would know that wealthy people are buying." The reverse happened with Urban Outfitters (URBN); the analysts were expecting good things from URBN when the company's disappointing quarter shocked The Street.

Few foresaw Brown-Forman's (BF.A) thing of beauty quarter which brought the stock up 9%. Analysts were focused too strongly on depletions, which reduce the amount made per item sold, but what they didn't realize is that Jack Daniels is the epitome of cool. It is the beverage of choice for the aspirational imbiber; when a cool guy walks into a bar he doesn't order a whiskey and Coke, he orders a Jack and Coke.

TheStreet keeps missing the point about Whole Foods (WFMI) and Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG). These aren't supermarket and restaurant plays, they are health plays, and people will pay up for fresh, organic ingredients. CMG has increased 72% since Cramer recommended it in June and WFMI has soared 52% since he got behind it in August.

Tupperware (TUP) surprised TheStreet with its fantastic quarter, but for those who are aware of the company's mission, the upside was not such a surprise. The company's new vision is to empower disenfranchised women in emerging market countries make money. "Tupperware did not win the Legion of Honor in France because they made the numbers," said Cramer. When looking for investments it pays to look beyond the numbers sometimes and to subjective factors.

Don't Panic

On the day of a hideous sell-off like the 200 Dow drop that occurred Thursday, it is tempting to surrender. However, Cramer would use days when it seems the pain is too great to rate stocks. It pays to get out of stocks that just aren't going to continue to work, even if they are down and to use the money to buy stocks with more upside potential.

Cramer gave viewers a tale from his own experience that illustrates why someone shouldn't just hold up the white flag and get out completely. Once, Cramer got so discouraged, he sold his entire portfolio to Goldman Sachs. Just two weeks after surrendering when the pain was too great, a stock he had held for years, American Stores, was taken over at a huge premium. If he had held on for just two weeks, he could have made the stellar investment for that entire year. "No one ever made any money by panicking," said Cramer, and that is also true now, even as the macro situation seems hopeless.


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