Returns On First Day of Month After More Than 20 BPS Move Previous Day

Includes: IVV, SPY
by: TickerSense

Yesterday morning, we noted that the last day of the month has not typically produced market gains. Granted, yesterday was no normal day since so much was going on, but the market bucked the trend and went higher.

During the current bull market, the S&P 500 has been up an average of 43 bps on the first day of the month, going higher on 35 of 51 occasions. The last four months, however, have all seen declines, for an average loss of 37 bps.

Below we look at how the S&P 500 has performed on the first day of the month following a last day of the month change of more than 20 bps. As shown, the Index has still averaged positive returns, but at 15 bps, it is lower than the overall average of 43 bps.