4 Stocks to Watch Tuesday

Includes: BMY, CP, DEER, SFLY
by: Rash Menaria

Here are four stocks to watch today:

Bristol Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY) issued a brief press release yesterday announcing that its drug ipilimumab (ipi) has improved the overall survival rate in the phase 3 '024 trial of previously-untreated patients with metastatic melanoma. Details on overall risk/benefit are still lacking, but the positive impact on survival in '024 and the durability of response suggests that the therapy is likely to be used extensively for metastatic melanoma treatment.

Going forward, BMY is also likely to test efficacy of ipilimumab in prostate cancer and lung cancer. According to some analysts, the potential annual sales for this drug could exceed $1bn if finally approved. This definitely is a big positive for BMY (particularly given the investor caution ahead of results). The stock is expected to outperform in the near term.

Canadian Pacific (NYSE:CP) announced yesterday that it expects diluted earnings per share (EPS) to be within the range of $0.12 to $0.22 (vs. consensus estimates of $0.76 ) due to severe weather conditions and a lag in fuel recoveries which negatively impacted EPS by $0.40. The interesting thing to note is that even excluding this $0.40 impact, CP would have missed the consensus expectations. CP is facing a host of problems, including the recent unexpected retirement
of its COO Ed Harris (who was material in reshaping its operational strategy) and lackluster 1Q11 volumes (AAR Data). The stock is expected to underperform other transportation peers in the near term.

Deer Consumer Product’s (NASDAQ:DEER) management issued a clarification after its stock fell over 20% yesterday. Management attributed the fall to possible illegal short selling activities in DEER’s common stock and maintained that there is no change in its business operation. Seeking Alpha contributor Alfred Little has recently written two articles on alleged financial wrong doings by DEER’s management. Click here to read the first article and here to read the second. The company is trading at ~8x consensus FY 11 EPS estimates, which is a significant discount as compared to its Chinese peers (which have a ~15x P/E multiple).

This definitely is a very attractive valuation if management’s side of the story is true. Further, the company’s CEO himself bought 250,000 shares in March, which gives some confidence. However, given the deep distrust of the “Chinese Reverse Merger” concept on the part of some American investors, it’s prudent to wait till more clarity emerges.

Shutterfly (NASDAQ:SFLY) announced the acquisition of Tinyprints Inc. yesterday. Tiny Prints operates tinyprints.com and weddingpaperdivas.com and offers stylish cards, invitations, personalized stationery and photo books. SFLY paid $333 million (~3x revenues multiple) for Tiny Prints. Shutterfly itself is trading over 3x current year revenue estimates, and given the attractive growth profile of Tinyprints and deal synergies, it appears like a good acquisition. The stock was down in after hours. Investors can go long on any correction from near to medium term perspective.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.