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The Dow Industrial Average moved above its 50-day simple moving average at 12,022 and its five-week modified moving average at 11,994. Weekly MOJO is now declining and a close this week below 11,994 shifts the weekly chart profile to negative from neutral. This would confirm the February 18th high at 12,391.29 as a cycle high for stocks. The S&P 500, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) stayed shy of their 50-day and five week moving averages. Dow Transports and Russell 2000 matched the Dow Industrials above these key technical levels.
10-Year Note – [(NYSEARCA:IEF)3.321] Weekly and annual value levels are 3.496 and 3.796 with daily and monthly, risky levels at 3.154 and 3.002.
Comex Gold – [(NYSEARCA:GLD) $1426.5] Daily and annual levels are $1397.9 and $1356.5 with weekly, monthly and quarterly pivots at $1440.7, $1437.7 and $1441.7, and semiannual risky level at $1452.6.
Nymex Crude Oil [(NYSEARCA:OIL) $102.29] Daily, monthly, and semiannual value levels are $97.57, $96.43, and $87.52 with annual pivots at $99.91 and $101.92, and semiannual and quarterly risky levels at $107.14 and $110.87.
The Euro – [(NYSEARCA:ERO) 1.4216] Daily and weekly value levels are 1.4137 and 1.4028 and 1.3227 with semiannual and monthly risky levels at 1.4624 and 1.4637.
Daily Dow: [(NYSEARCA:DIA) 12,037] Daily and annual value levels are 11,609 and 11,491 with weekly and monthly risky levels at 12,271 and 12,741. Watch the 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages for a potential bearish crossover where the 21-day at 12,065 trends below the 50-day at 12,022..
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
(Click chart to enlarge)
Key Levels for the Major Equity Averages
  • The Dow Industrial Average [(DIA) 12,037] Daily and annual value levels are 11,609 and 11,491 with weekly and monthly risky levels at 12,271 and 12,741. Given a close in March below 11,491 the downside is to semiannual value levels at 10,959 and 9,449.
  • The S&P 500 [(NYSEARCA:SPY) 1298.4] Monday’s rally failed between its five-week modified moving average at 1299.2 and its 50-day simple moving average at 1303.25. Daily and annual value levels are 1254.3 and 1210.7 with my quarterly pivot at 1262.5, and weekly and monthly risky levels at 1330.7 and 1381.3.
  • The NASDAQ [(QQQQ) 2692] Monday’s rally was well below its five-week modified moving average at 2725 and its 50-day simple moving average at 2743. My daily value level is 2596 with weekly, quarterly and monthly risky levels at 2792, 2853 and 2926. Semiannual and annual value levels are 2363, 2335 and 2172.
  • The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2263) Monday’s rally was well below its five-week modified moving average at 2300 and its 50-day simple moving average at 2318. My daily value level is 2190 with weekly, quarterly, and monthly risky levels at 2360, 2438 and 2499. Semiannual value levels are 2006.8 and 1927.6.
  • Dow Transports (5167) Monday’s rally went above its five-week modified moving average at 5101 and its 50-day simple moving average at 5111. Daily and quarterly value levels are 4997 and 4671 with weekly and annual pivots at 5164 and 5179.
  • The Russell 2000 (813.02) Monday’s rally was well below its five-week modified moving average at 803.96 and its 50-day simple moving average at 803.78. Daily and quarterly value levels are 774.36 and 765.50 with my annual pivot at 784.16, and weekly and monthly risky levels at 842.72 and 850.79. Semiannual value levels are 631.62 and 567.74.
  • The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) (426.90) Monday’s rally was well below its five-week modified moving average at 440.81 and its 50-day simple moving average at 446.00. My daily value level is 410.94 with monthly, weekly, and quarterly risky levels at 453.89, 462.98 and 465.93. Semiannual and annual value levels are 296.89, 270.98 and 259.30.
A major reason to be bearish is the housing market. US existing Home Sales declined to an annual rate of 4.88 million in February, down 9.6% from January. The inventory of homes for sale rose by 3.5% to 3.488 million. Because of this glut the median home price fell 5.2% year over year to $156,000, back to the levels of April 2002. Sales of homes at risk of foreclosure rose to 39% of all sales in February
Source: Monday's Rebound Fell Short of Some Key Levels