Jabil Offers Longs Advantage After Earnings

Mar.22.11 | About: Jabil Circuit (JBL)

Longs get the better look on Jabil Circuit (NYSE:JBL) as it reports Q2 results in tonight's after-hours session. But shorts aren't out of the game on this one.

On the long side, JBL has recorded a positive after-hours earnings-driven move in 11 events over the last six years of data we've tracked. It has seen a more robust upside move in the following bell-to-bell trade in nine of those events, or 82% of the time. That's a strong history for longs to take into tonight's trade and has us firmly in the buy camp if JBL pops higher this evening.

But as we noted above, JBL doesn't knock shorts out of play if it should see negative trade this evening. JBL has seen negative post-bell earnings-driven trade in 13 events we've tracked, and in seven of those quarters the stock has moved deeper into the red in the following day's regular session. Just a bit over 50% in terms of its ability to add to evening declines - not stellar historical data - but enough to warrant a good look at where any downside ceiling may develop tonight.

JBL is due with its Q2 results in the extended-hours session today. The Thomson Reuters mean analyst estimate is for earnings of $0.51 per share on $3.91 billion in revenue.

Here's the last six years of history:

On Dec. 20, 2010, JBL advanced 3.8% in after-hours trading after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock soared higher the following day, closing the Dec. 21 regular session up 10.7%.

On Sept. 27, 2010, JBL slipped 1.2% in after-hours action after beating EPS estimates, meeting on revenue, and setting mixed guidance. The stock cut its downside slightly the next day, closing the Sept. 28 regular session down 0.9%.

On June 22, 2010, JBL advanced 8.1% in evening trading after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock moved even higher the next day, closing the June 23 regular session up 10.6%.

On March 23, 2010, JBL declined 5.7% in evening trading after beating earnings expectations and setting its guidance in a range that straddled the Street view. The stock tumbled lower the following day, closing the March 24 regular session down 9.9%.

On Dec. 21, 2009, JBL advanced 5.8% in evening trading after posting better-than-expected Q1 earnings and Q2 guidance. The stock soared higher the following day, ending the Dec. 22 regular session with a 14.3% advance.

On Sept. 29, 2009, JBL firmed 7.1% in after-hours action after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock added to its upside the next day, rising 9.2% by the close on Sept. 30.

On June 23, 2009, JBL declined 3.5% in after-hours trading after meeting revenue expectations, beating on earnings, and setting mixed guidance. The stock reversed course the following day, ending the June 24 regular session up 2.8%.

On March 24, 2009, JBL dropped 10.7% in evening trading after a Q2 beat but presenting Q3 guidance below the Street view. Shares rebounded heartily to close up 36.5% the next day after the company commented that its key markets were stabilizing.

On Dec. 19, 2008, JBL declined 5.7% in pre-market trading after reporting a year-over-year decline in earnings and setting guidance below expectations. The decline narrowed in the following regular session, ending down 2.1%.

On Sept. 26, 2008, JBL advanced 4% in pre-market trading after reporting better-than-expected revenue and in-line guidance. The stock closed the Sept. 26 regular session up a more modest 2.8%.

On June 24, 2008, JBL gained 8% in evening trading after topping Q3 Street estimates and setting its outlook in-line to above the then-current expectations. The stock soared even higher the next day, ramping 15.6% by the June 25 close.

On March 25, 2008, JBL declined 12.8% in after-hours trading after beating on Q2 but offering guidance below expectations. It was crushed for more aggressive declines the next day, losing 18.3% by the close on March 26.

On Dec. 20, 2007, the stock dropped 10.4% during evening hours after JBL reported guidance below the Street's view. The loss swelled to 21.6% the next day.

On Sept. 27, 2007, JBL eased 1.1% in night trading despite beating Q4 estimates and forecasting Q1 to be about in line with expectations. Shares fell even more the next day, closing the regular session down 6.7%.

On June 21, 2007, the stock gained 8.2% in the evening hours after earnings fell from a year earlier but beat the Street's view. The gain expanded to 9.8% the next day.

On March 22, 2007, the stock fell 5.7% after the company beat with sales but said it sees restructuring costs at high end of guidance. The loss widened to 10.7% the next day.

On Dec. 20, 2006, JBL dropped 4.1% in night trading after beating Q1 expectations but guiding Q2 below Street views. Shares added to those losses the next day, closing the regular session down 9.1%.

On Sept. 26, 2006, JBL advanced 7.8% in after-hours trading after the company reported better-than-expected Q4 results and guided its forward sales view above the consensus. It lost a good chunk of the evening upside the next day, adding just 3.8% by the closing bell.

On June 21, 2006, shares fell 4.9% in the evening hours after the company reported it missed with Q3 core EPS but topped sales estimates, also cutting its outlook and projecting layoffs. The loss was reined in somewhat the next day and shares finished down 2.7%.

On March 22, 2006, JBL rose 5.4% in night trading after beating Q2 sales guidance and guiding Q3 above Street views. The shares extended their gains the next day, ending the regular session up 11.8%.

On Dec. 20, 2005, shares fell 2.8% after the company reported above the Street with Q1 earnings and revenue, guided mostly in line for Q2 and raised its internal guidance for full-year 2006. Shares rebounded to gain 7.2% the next day.

On Sept. 26, 2005 JBL edged down 0.8% in evening trading after the company beat on EPS, posted sales shy of expectations, and guided in-line. Sellers added to the negative momentum on Sept. 27, dropping the stock 2% by the closing bell.

On June 21, JBL advanced 4.4% in night trading after the company matched Q3 expectations and guided in-line with current Street estimates. Buyers moved more aggressively into the issue on June 22, spiking it 10.4% between the bells.

On March 17, 2005 JBL added 1.8% in after-hours trading after the company reported Q2 results in-line with Street estimates and set its Q3 and FY05 revenue outlook ahead of the current analyst view. The stock surged higher on March 18, rising 6% between the regular session bells.

In the three quarters that we tracked in 2004, JBL shares widened twice and narrowed once.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.