Seeking Alpha
Profile| Send Message|
( followers)  

We're pining for an up after-hours move in Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) shares as the stock consistently sees more aggressive next-day gains post-earnings. But even on an evening decline, the stock usually sinks deeper in the red the following day. So Oracle can't really disappoint either side of the trade tonight.

ORCL has seen an earnings-driven after-hours gain in 17 of the 28 quarters MidnightTrader has tracked. In 14 of those quarters, 82% of the time, the stock has added more aggressively to its gain in the following day's regular session.

On the downside, ORCL has recorded an earnings-driven after-hours decline in 11 of the 28 quarters tracked. The stock favors widening in its next-day performance following an evening decline, adding to its downside seven times, or 64% of the time, and reversing direction four times.

ORCL is due with its Q3 results after the close tonight, and analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect the company to report a profit of $0.50 per share on revenue of $8.66 billion.

Here's the history:

On Dec. 16, 2010, ORCL gained 3.8% in after-hours trading after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock turned slightly higher the next day, closing the Dec. 17 regular session up 3.9%.

On Sept. 16, 2010, ORCL jumped 4.5% in evening trading after beating Q1 expectations and setting Q2 guidance in line with estimates. The stock leaped higher the following day, closing the Sept. 17 regular session up 8.3%.

On June 24, 2010, ORCL gained 3.6% in after-hours trading after beating Q4 expectations and issuing a mixed Q1 outlook. The stock saw its gain cut back in the following day's regular session, ending up 1.9% on June 25.

On March 25, 2010, ORCL declined 1.2% in evening trading after beating Q3 expectations and setting its Q4 outlook in line with the Street view. It added modestly to its downside the following day, closing the March 26 regular session down 1.3%.

On Dec. 17, 2009, ORCL firmed 3.9% in evening trading beating Q2 expectations and setting in-line guidance. The stock continued heading north in the Dec. 18 regular session, ending up 6.3%.

On Sept. 16, 2009, ORCL dropped 2.4% in after-hours action after the company reported in-line earnings results, missed on revenue and set guidance in a range that could miss or meet the Street. The stock added to its negative run the next day, dropping 2.7% by the Sept. 17 regular session close.

On June 23, 2009, ORCL gained 2.6% in after-hours trading after beating Q4 expectations and setting its guidance above the Street view. The stock jumped higher the following day, ending the June 24 regular session up 7%.

On March 18, 2009, ORCL jumped 7.4% in after-hours trading after the company reported better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock firmed even higher the next day, closing the March 19 regular session up 9.7%.

On Dec. 18, 2008, ORCL advanced 3.3% in after-hours trading despite missing revenue expectations and setting guidance in-line with Street estimates. The stock firmed higher the following day, rising 7% in the Dec. 19 regular session.

On Sept. 18, 2008, ORCL gained 5.8% in after-hours trading after besting the Street's earnings expectations and guiding its outlook in line with estimates. The stock edged higher the following day, rising 7% by the close on Sept. 19.

On June 25, 2008, ORCL lost 3.1% in after-hours trading after topping Q4 expectations and setting its guidance in line with the Street view. It slid deeper into the red the next day, closing the June 26 bell-to-bell session down 5%.

On March 26, 2008, the stock fell 8.5% after ORCL reported a revenue miss. The loss was trimmed slightly to 7.2% the next day.

On Dec. 19, 2007, the stock gained 6.5% during evening hours after ORCL reported in line with Q2 and guided for Q3 in line to above the Street view. The stock gained 6.4% the next day.

On Sept. 20, 2007, ORCL firmed 0.1% in evening activity after beating Q1 estimates and forecasting Q2 non-GAAP EPS to be in line to above expectations. Shares built on those gains and ended the next day session up 4.4%.

On June 26, 2007, the stock was up 1.1% after guiding higher. The gain improved to 2.7% the next day.

On March 20, 2007, ORCL edged up 2.8% in after hours when the company topped Q3 EPS estimates by $0.02. Shares rose further the next day, ending the regular session up 3.5%.

On December 18, 2006, ORCL eased 2.4% in night trading after mostly in line Q2 results and Q3 EPS guidance. The shares fell further the next day, closing the regular session down 4.5%.

On Sept. 19, 2006, shares jumped 13.1% in the evening hours after the company beat with Q1 results and offered favorable comments on Q2 in its conference call. The gain was reined in just slightly the next day although the issue still posted an 11.1% advance.

On June 22, 2006, shares nosed up just 0.4% in the evening hours after the company reported Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.29 per share, a penny better than the Street view. Revenue was $4.9 billion, vs. the FC mean of $4.73 billion. The gain expanded to 3.9% the next day.

On March 20, 2006, ORCL lost 3.5% in evening trading despite reporting better-than-expected Q3 results and guiding Q4 in line with forecasts. The shares regained some of their losses the following day, ending the regular session down 0.7%.

On December 15, 2005, ORCL lost 2.6% in night trading after reporting Q2 results in line with expectations. The shares trimmed their losses the next day, closing the regular session down only 1%.

ORCL declined 4.3% the night of Sept. 22, 2005 after the company reported in-line Q1 earnings, revenue just shy of Street estimates, and guided Q2 revenue below the then-current analyst consensus. The stock was hammered lower on Sept. 23, losing 7.9% by the close.

ORCL advanced 5% in the June 29 pre-market session after the company beat Street expectations and guided in-line to higher. The stock saw slightly more aggressive action between the bells, ending the day up 5.7%.

ORCL lost 1.5% the night of March 22, 2005 after the company beat expectations and guided higher. It turned slightly to the plus-side on March 23, rising a slim 0.1% between the bells.

Prior to the March 22-23 timeframe the stock had been a consistent wider mover between the sessions, posting more aggressive next-day regular session trade in its previous four reports.

Back on Dec. 13, 2004 ORCL added 6.9% in pre-market trade after the company topped expectations. The stock soared in regular session action, closing the Dec. 13 regular session up 10.1%.

On Sept. 14, 2004 ORCL advanced 3.7% in after-hours trading after the company beat Street estimates and guided in-line. More aggressive buying greeted the issue the following day as ORCL closed the Sept. 15 bell-to-bell session up 7.4%.

On June 15, 2004 the company beat expectations and issued in-line guidance, and the stock slid 2.1% in that night's after-hours. It closed the next day's regular session down 3%.

On March 11, 2004 ORCL reported results in line with expectations and ended the after-hours session down 0.4%. It followed that move with a decline of 1.6% by the close of the March 12 regular session.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Source: Long or Short, Follow Oracle's After-Hours Direction