Coinstar: Not Ramping Up Units Fast Enough?

Thomas Weisel comments on Coinstar (NASDAQ:CSTR) after their store survey found a relatively modest ramp in coin-sorting units over the last several months and the run rate will have to ramp in order for the company to meet its goal.

Using the store locator on CSTR's website and searching all 40,000-plus zip codes, the firm got a monthly count of domestic coin-sorting locations. Locations rose from 12,218 at December 27, 2006 to 12,246 on February 1, 2007. The 28-unit increase compares with an average of 36 per month since September.

Firm notes the survey is new and back data limited, so they are reluctant to make too much of the apparent slow unit growth. It would appear that the pace will have to accelerate to meet their 800-unit estimate for 2007. Each 200 units adds an estimated $4mn to revenue, $1.2mn to EBITDA and $0.02 to EPS. TWP's estimate for 2007 is $0.99.

They see the stock as fairly valued against their estimate of earnings power. Assuming $160mn of EBITDA in 2009 and an 8.5x multiple they get to a future value of $44/share and discount that back to a current fair value of $29-32/share. Maintains Mkt Weight.

Notablecalls: Not actionable but 'good to know' category.

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