After looking for value in the biggest Russell 1000 year to date losers, I thought I'd do the opposite today and take a look at the biggest year to date winners.
|Ticker||Short Name||Total Return QTD (I)||Op ROIC||EV/TTM EBIT||P/B|
|LVLT||LEVEL 3 COMM INC||48.98||-1.72|
|HRB||H&R BLOCK INC||42.81||21.04||8.42||8.41|
|BIG||BIG LOTS INC||42.71||34.78||6.15||3.42|
|COG||CABOT OIL & GAS||41.11||5.80||24.13||2.94|
|HP||HELMERICH & PAYN||40.12||11.59||10.92||2.44|
With an average YTD return of over 50%, your portfolio would be up pretty nicely if you had invested in a basket of these names. The real question is- is there any upside from here?
The answer, as always with investing, is it depends on what stocks you're looking at.
Green Mountain (GMCR), for instance, looked awfully overvalued even before a 100% move. The company has been mentioned several times as a short candidate, but shares have continued to defy gravity despite poor earnings quality and constant shareholder dilution
Another name that seems richly priced is JDS Uniphase (JDSU). The company trades for nosebleed multiples despite a history of losses and poor returns on capital. Investors may want to consider how much they are paying for future growth at today's prices. Level 3 (LVLT) has many of the same issues, though some writers believe they may be on the verge of a turn around or a takeover.
In contrast, some of the names on this list still look very cheap. Micron (MU), for example, is still one of cheapest names in tech. The company has strong returns on capital and appears poised to ride a tremendous tech growth cycle, but still trades for low valuations and seems undervalued even after a strong run in its stock this quarter.
H&R Block (HRB) also could over some value. Shares have recovered from distressed prices as investors overcame concerns about RALs and focused on HRB taking market share from weaker competitors, but the stock still offers magic formula like characteristics plus a strong dividend.
While investors are unlikely to realize the same sort of returns going forward as they did in the past quarter, they could find a lot of value even after the big run up.