Today in Commodities: A Non-Event

by: Matthew Bradbard

Nothing significant to report today. Crude closed higher for the fifth consecutive session but for the last three we’ve been range bound as we are still expecting a $3-4 retracement. Natural gas lost another 2% today closing under the 50 day MA for the first time in three weeks. Remain on the sidelines for now and look to step into longs from lower levels. The equity market is marginally higher as of this post…aggressive clients hold June ES put spreads that are currently under water. We would refrain from futures trading unless day trading until we get a clearer picture.

The US dollar gave up ground now the last six sessions as we may make a run at the lows from two weeks ago. Clients remain in bearish Aussie positions and are now holding a slight loser. Our target remains par in the June futures contract. The ECB and BoE are out tomorrow in the am with an IR decision…be cautious. Both lean hogs and live cattle are breaking as forecast with June live cattle down by 1.40% today and June lean hogs 1.65%. We anticipate a minimum of 2-3% additional downside…trade accordingly. A multi- decade high in silver and record high in gold for two days running now. Most clients are on the sidelines and missing one hell of a move but that is OK. A smaller portion have June gold bearish spreads which we may choose to trade out of…stay tuned. There will in my opinion be a major correction that we will buy into for clients…could we see $42-45 in silver and $1500 in gold first...that is possible. The big moves in the softs sector today was a move lower in sugar and higher in cotton. Outside of buying into cocoa at these levels we see no reason to establish any new positions here. Aggressive grain traders can get short corn and wheat to play a trade 2-4% move lower. Treasuries broke the 40 day MA but at over sold levels on the daily chart we still like scaling into longs and see a trade higher in 10-yr notes and 30-yr bonds in the coming weeks…trade accordingly.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.