Still Hard to Say if Latest Incremental Rise in Mortgage Rates a Trend

by: Sold At The Top

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50% of all residential mortgage originations. It also tracks the average interest rate for 30-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage increased 1 basis point to 4.93% since last week, while the purchase application volume increased 6.7% and the refinance application volume declined 6.2% over the same period.

While rates have generally trending up for the last five months, it will take some time to determine if this trend will continue or if rates will begin to slide back down to the historically low levels seen in mid-2010. In any event, the purchase application volume remains near the lowest level seen in well over a decade while refinance activity continues to slow.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).

Click to enlarge: