The market continued its sideways move yesterday and banged-up against 1335 resistance for most of the session. Over the past five sessions, the market has been stuck in a small range and trading on less than average volume. The slow grind this week was exactly what I expected, although I did think it would close below 1330 a few times.
Either way, it's Friday, and the slow week is about to end. I can assure you that the indices will not stay this idly paced for long, once earnings season hits full stride over the next month. Oddly enough, today could be a very active session, because the dollar is in freefall this morning -- and that has commodities like oil and gold ready to blast higher.
I do not really see today’s pop in commodities as having any lasting ability, but as long as the dollar keeps plummeting, the price of commodities will rise.
Of course, Ben Bernanke will deny such obvious realities. But it is clear to everyone, likely even Bernanke off camera, that quantitative easing has a negative impact on the dollar. And a falling dollar makes the things that it’s priced in (stocks, oil, gold) rise.
The dollar and stocks do not always have an inverse correlation, but for the most part, if the dollar is increasing, stocks typically will fall. And that is perhaps one reason that we did not get a larger decline this week. I think that it is pretty clear to anyone that the market wanted to head lower this week. On such a low volume week, if the bulls actually wanted to blast though 1335 resistance, they easily could have.
But they didn’t. The bulls broke that resistance every day intraday, but ran away from stocks at the close. This suggests to me that no real money was entering the market. And the only reason why the indices are showing a flat week is because the dollar remained weak, which provided a minor boost to commodities and stocks.
I continue to remain a long-term dollar bull. Over the past few months, as many of you know, I have not been bullish on the dollar – in fact, I even went long the euro last month. But until long-term support areas are violated, I believe the dollar will rally before the end of 2011.
Of course, that rally needs to occur very soon. The dollar is trading within 1% of what I deem to be a must hold area of support. And it just so happens that earnings season as well as government fiscal talks will begin to resolve by next week. Although I am optimistic that the dollar will see a lasting rebound, if it breaks support it will fall – and it will fall fast and hard, another 6%.
Such a decline would easily propel the indices up by the same amount, likely more. That would put SPX up to 1400, the Nasdaq up to 2975 and the Russell 2000 to new all time highs of 905. God only knows how high oil would shoot to -- $125 minimum? -- and gold (GLD) would very likely hit my $1500 ($150) bull flag price target -- finally.
A little gold miner, Nevada Gold (UWN), deserves your attention. It had a massive break out last week and continued higher through Thursday. The first target from the wedge break out is $1.60, so expect it to consolidate in short order and allow you an entry in and around $1.40. Then take it for a ride to $1.85 within three weeks.