6 Cramer Buy Ideas at Least 15% Overvalued

by: Investment Underground

On Cramer's Mad Money, the man touts stocks. Some are good, some are bad. Here are a few Cramer buy ideas that leave big question marks. These names have gotten ahead of their underlying fundamentals.

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN): AMZN is an online retailer that operates both in North America and internationally. AMZN also offers programs that enable sellers to sell their products on its Web sites, and their own branded Web sites. While AMZN has come to dominate the online retail industry over the past few years, they are starting to face increased competition from brick-and-mortar retailers who are struggling to maintain internet sales revenue from the increasingly lucrative online shopper. AMZN’s operating margin of 3.66% is already among the lowest in the industry, and given AMZN’s inability to provide the kinds of in-store services alternatives for customers that brick-and-mortar stores offer, AMZN could be poised to decline even further in 2011. AMZN is currently trading at a 60+ P/E multiple, a 20% premium to our fair value estimate.
Salesforce.com, Inc. (NYSE:CRM): In FY 2011 through January, GAAP EPS was $0.47, was a drop of 25.4%, after +80% in FY 2010. However, revenues were up by 26.93%, after +21.24% in FY 2010 and +43.82% in FY 2009. The EBT margin in FY 2011 was 6.29%, which was lower than FY 2010’s 10.91%. In FY 2012, the Street expects proforma EPS to be between $1.34 and $1.42. The figure for FY 2011 was $1.22. The next expected report date is May 18. Analysts expect proforma EPS in Q1 2012 to be between $0.26 and $0.29. In comparison, Q1 2011 produced a proforma EPS of $0.30. CRM trades with a P/S of 10.6. From 2004 to 2007, the respective multiples were 12.9, 13.8, 9.4, and 11.8. The company has a manageable debt to equity ratio of 0.39. Shares are 15% overvalued on a discounted cash flow basis.
Lulumon (NASDAQ:LULU): Cramer really likes this stock because he emphasized that his viewers buy it on March 22, 25, 29, and on April 5. Also, over the last year, LULU is up by 101.2%. For the fiscal year ended January 30, 2011, net revenue for the fiscal year increased 57% to $711.7 million, and diluted EPS increased 106% to $1.69 on net income of $121.8 million, compared to diluted earnings per share of $0.82 on net income of $58.3 million in FY 2010. Comparable stores sales increased by 30% on a constant dollar basis, resulting in a record $1,726 sales per square foot. The next earnings release is on June 9. For FY 2012, the company expects net revenue to be in the range of $885 million to $900 million and diluted EPS in the range of $1.90 to $2.00. The company has surprised the Street for 9 straight quarters. Lululemon Athletica is a yoga-inspired athletic apparel company looking for a place on par with Nike (NKE). Shares trade at a 20% premium to our discounted cash flow estimate. We use a 10% cost of equity for the company.
Netfix (NASDAQ:NFLX): NFLX is a subscription service streaming movies and television episodes over the Internet and sending digital versatile discs (DVDs) by mail to more than 12 million subscribers. NFLX’s subscribers can watch unlimited movies and television episodes streamed to their televisions and computers, and can receive DVDs delivered to their homes. While NFLX has experienced tremendous growth over the past year, which can be attributed to their relative monopoly over the instant entertainment streaming and mail DVD subscription services, NFLX is beginning to see increased competition from traditional in-home entertainment providers. This competition includes instant streaming of movies and television shows available to Amazon’s prime customers, Comcast’s (NASDAQ:CMCSA) XFINITY service, and DIRECTV’s (DTV) DIRECTV Cinema option. Additionally, NFLX has recently announced the development of original shows exclusively for NFLX customers, which signals to investors NFLX’s struggle to find new ways to maintain their historically high growth rate. NFLX is currently trading at a 75+ P/E multiple, a 20% premium to our fair value estimate.
OpenTable (NASDAQ:OPEN): Investment guru George Soros purchased 65,000 shares of OpenTable at an average price around $67 per share in the latest full quarter. Bullish and bearish investors have wrestling with this company, which now has a forward PE of 60+. The company has the beginnings of a network moat through its restaurant reservation system. We find the shares to be mildly overpriced on a discounted cash flow basis. Shares trade at a 20% premium to our discounted cash flow estimate.
Travelzoo (NASDAQ:TZOO): In 2010, GAAP EPS shot up by 150% to $0.80, after improving from - $0.29 to $0.32 in 2009. Revenues grew by 20.02% to $113 million, after +15.44% in 2009. Moreover, the EBT margin improved to 20.82% from 14.57%. In 2011, the Street expects non-GAAP EPS to be between $1.05 and $1.22. In 2010, non-GAAP EPS was $0.80. The next earnings announcement is on April 25. The Street forecasts EPS between $0.25 and $0.29. In comparison, Q1 2010 non-GAAP EPS was $0.15. TZOO shares trade with a P/S multiple of 9.4. From 2002 to 2010, those multiples were 8.1, 9.9, 52.4, 7.8, 7.3, 2.8, 1.0, 2.1, and 6.0, respectively. Projected EPS growth is aggressive, but not explosive enough to merit the current P/S multiple. This company has no outstanding debt. Travelzoo is a global Internet media company. With more than 22 million subscribers in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific and 24 offices worldwide, Travelzoo publishes deals from more than 2,000 travel and entertainment companies. Travelzoo’s deal experts review offers to find the best deals and confirm their true value. Currently, shares trade at a 15% premium to our fair value estimate.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.