VMware a Volatile Post-Earnings Mover, Favors Reversing Direction

Apr.19.11 | About: VMware, Inc. (VMW)

VMware (NYSE:VMW) is a tough post-earnings performance to peg. It does not regularly follow-up gains or losses in the next day's session with heftier same-direction trade. Instead, it pulls off sharp reversals.

Over the handful of earnings reports we've tracked, the stock favors reversing direction between the sessions. It has narrowed nine times and in five quarters has widened its evening share move during the next day's session. Near-term, the stock has reversed direction in two quarters and widened in two quarters.

Looking deeper into data, the issue has followed up evening earnings with a gain eight times, but longs take note: the stock extended that move only twice. On the downside, the stock declined in extended-hours trading six times, and widened that move three times.

VMware is due with Q1 results after the bell tonight. The average forecast in an analyst survey by Thomson Reuters is for $0.42 per share in earnings on $815.45 million in revenue.

On January 24, 2011, the stock fell 5.3% despite beating with results. Shares dropped 3.9% the next day.

On Oct. 18, 2010, the stock fell 4.6% despite a Q3 beat. Shares dropped 6.6% the next day.

On July 20, 2010, the stock gained 4.1% after a quarterly earnings, guidance beat. Shares were up a slimmer 1% the next day.

On April 20, 2010, VMW edged up 0.3% in after-hours action after beating Q1 expectations. The stock surged higher the following day, closing the April 21 regular session up 9%.

On Jan. 25, 2010, the stock was up 17.7% after an earnings beat. Shares rose 12.6% the next day.

On Oct. 21, 2010, the stock edged up 1.5% in evening trading after an earnings report that beat Q3 estimates. Shares reversed to slip 0.3% the next day.

On July 22, 2009, the stock gained 6.7% after a narrow beat with Q2 results. The gain was trimmed to 4.8% during the following day's regular trading session.

On April 22, 2009, the stock tanked 15.1% on a report that beat with EPS but missed with revenue. Shares fell a deeper 20.3% the next day.

On Jan. 26, 2009, the stock fell 2.9% after a Q4 beat but revenue guidance below the Street view. Shares closed down a slightly narrower 2.8% the next day.

On Oct. 21, 2008, the stock jumped 22.8% during evening trading after reporting ahead of the Street with its latest results. The stock gain narrowed to 7.1% the next day.

On July 22, 2008, the stock tanked 14.7% during evening trading after VMW missed with revenue. The loss was trimmed considerably, to 2.5% by the close of trading the following day.

On April 22, 2008, the stock jumped 14.7% during evening trading after a Q1 revenue beat and upbeat guidance. Shares narrowed that gain to 4.8% the next day.

On Jan. 28, 2008, the stock plunged 23% during evening trading after a EPS beat but revenues well below Street view. The loss swelled to 33.8% the next day.

On Oct. 24, 2007, the stock gained 3.8% after a Q3 beat. The advance improved to 10.1% the next day.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.