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Temple-Inland (NYSE:TIN)

Q1 2011 Earnings Call

April 20, 2011 9:30 am ET

Executives

J. Maley - President, Chief Operating Officer and Director

Chris Mathis - Vice President of Investor Relations & Treasury

Doyle Simons - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of Executive Committee

Analysts

Mark Wilde - Deutsche Bank AG

Mark Weintraub - Buckingham Research Group

Richard Skidmore - Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

George Staphos

Chip Dillon - Crédit Suisse AG

Anthony Pettinari - Citigroup Inc

Gail Glazerman - UBS Investment Bank

Operator

Good morning, my name is Therese, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Temple-Inland First Quarter 2011 Earnings and Webcast Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to Chris Mathis, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasury.

Chris Mathis

Good morning. My name is Chris Mathis, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasury for Temple-Inland, and I would like to welcome each of you who have joined us by conference call or webcast this morning to discuss the results for first quarter 2011. Joining me this morning are Doyle Simons, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Temple-Inland; Pat Maley, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Randy Levy, Chief Financial Officer.

Please read the warning statements in our press release and our slides concerning forward-looking statements as we will make forward-looking statements during this presentation. In addition, this presentation includes non-GAAP financial measures. The required reconciliation to GAAP financial measures can be found on our website at www.templeinland.com. This morning, we will give a presentation on the results for first quarter 2011. After the completion of the presentation, we'll be happy to take your questions.

Thank you for your interest in Temple-Inland, and I would now like to turn the call over to Doyle Simons.

Doyle Simons

Thank you, Chris. Good morning, everyone, and welcome. We had a very good first quarter as our employees delivered strong operating results and return on investment despite challenging weather conditions and higher input cost. Excluding special items, net income was $0.22 per share. This compares with net income excluding special items of $0.31 per share in fourth quarter 2010 and a loss of $0.01 per share in first quarter 2010. Special items in first quarter 2011 were an after-tax charge of $8 million or $0.07 per share primarily related to Box Plant Transformation II.

In Corrugated Packaging, segment operating income was $98 million. This compares with $103 million in fourth quarter 2010 and is more than double the $46 million earned in first quarter 2010. Our mills ran well in the quarter, and Box Plant Transformation continues to drive down the cost structure of our box plant system. The solid performance of our mills and box plant minimized the impact from challenging weather conditions and higher input cost in the quarter.

In terms of absolute input cost, comparing first quarter 2011 with fourth quarter 2010, input costs were up with virgin fiber up $4 million, OCC up $1 million, energy up $7 million, chemicals up $2 million and freight up $7 million. Compared with first quarter 2010, input costs were mixed with virgin fiber down $4 million, OCC up $4 million, energy down $6 million, chemicals up $6 million and freight up $11 million. Our average box price was flat in first quarter 2011 compared with fourth quarter 2010. Our box price realization in the first quarter benefited from our ongoing strategic initiative to improve our mix of business.

On an average week basis, our box shipments were down 2% in first quarter 2011 compared with first quarter 2010. Industry box shipments were flat in the quarter. Our shipments versus the industry were against a tougher comp as our shipments were up 4% in first quarter 2010, while industry shipments were up 2% in first quarter 2010. Our actual box shipments were up 36,000 tons in first quarter 2011 compared with fourth quarter 2010, despite the loss of approximately 11,000 tons of agricultural business in Mexico due to the record low temperatures in early February.

We took 23,000 tons of maintenance-related downtime in the quarter. In addition, we reduced mill output through a combination of mill shutdowns and slowbacks by approximately 20,000 tons in the quarter to match our supply with our demand.

Looking ahead, we are optimistic as box shipments gained momentum in March, and that trend has continued into April. However, it is important to note that we have two less shipping days in the second quarter compared with the first quarter. In addition, we will have continued cost pressure in the second quarter as freight and energy costs continue to rise. Planned mill maintenance downtime in the quarter is anticipated to be approximately 27,000 tons.

Building Products. Building Products loss $6 million in first quarter 2011 compared with a loss of $15 million in fourth quarter 2010 and a loss of $9 million in first quarter 2010. Housing starts were down 9% in first quarter 2011 compared with year ago levels. Lumber prices were up $27 in first quarter 2011 compared with fourth quarter 2010 and down $33 compared with first quarter 2010. Lumber volumes were up compared with fourth quarter 2010 and first quarter 2010. Gypsum prices were up $1 in first quarter 2011 compared with fourth quarter 2010 and up $6 compared with first quarter 2010. Gypsum volumes were up compared with fourth quarter 2010 and first quarter 2010.

Particleboard prices were up $10 compared with fourth quarter 2010 and up $10 compared with first quarter 2010. Particleboard volumes were up compared with fourth quarter 2010 and first quarter 2010. Our EBITDA on this business was a positive $4 million in the quarter, up from a negative $5 million in fourth quarter 2010 and $2 million in first quarter 2010, despite the historically low levels of housing starts in the quarter. We are one of very few companies in the industry that has continued to generate positive EBITDA throughout the severe downturn in housing.

Looking forward to the second quarter, current lumber prices are down compared with first quarter, while gypsum and particleboard prices are up modestly. Now I'll touch on a few financial highlights for the first quarter.

Beginning with cash flow, total cash provided by operations was $35 million for the quarter. The operations portion, which can be thought of as funds from operations, provided $93 million. The working capital portion in the quarter was a $58 million use of cash, which was consistent with our typical first quarter seasonal usage.

Moving to the balance sheet, our long-term debt was $761 million at quarter end, down $3 million from first quarter a year ago but up $43 million from year end due to our seasonal working capital needs. Our liquidity remains very strong. At quarter end, our unused borrowing capacity was $673 million. And then to wrap up the financials, unallocated expenses, interest expense and the effective tax rate in the quarter were all consistent with or better than our prior guidance. Share-based comp expense was $19 million in the quarter due to the increase of our stock price in the quarter.

In summary, first quarter 2011 was a very good quarter as our mills ran well, and we continue to realize the benefit from Box Plant Transformation. Looking ahead, box demand is improving, and we continue to be encouraged by our progress on Box Plant Transformation II. In Corrugated Packaging, we are confident in our ability to continue to drive returns well above our cost of capital. In Building Products, we continue to benefit from our low-cost facilities, favorable geographic footprint and mix of products and are well-positioned to fully capitalize on the recovery in housing.

Finally, our financial priorities remain unchanged, and we are committed to the appropriate allocation of capital to best create long-term value for our shareholders.

Now, we will open it up for questions. Operator?

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Chip Dillon with Crédit Suisse.

Chip Dillon - Crédit Suisse AG

Good number on the Corrugated Packaging segment. When you look -- we're almost to mid-2010 and when you look, or '11, when we look out at 2012, do you expect that CapEx with the Box Plant Transformation program starting to wind down, to slip a bit from where it is this year or do you think it will stay up at this, I have about $230 million, I think that's somewhere around the ballpark you're talking about for this year?

Doyle Simons

Yes, correct. Chip, what we've said is we think CapEx this year will be in the $225 million to $235 million range. As we previously said, we believe we will be roughly 85% through with Box Plant Transformation II by the end of 2011, and as a result, we anticipate that CapEx will move toward more normalized levels in 2012. Our normalized level of CapEx is roughly in the 85% of depreciation range. Current depreciation is roughly $200 million.

Chip Dillon - Crédit Suisse AG

Got you. And if I saw, read the slide correctly, it looks like you are taking some downtime in the second quarter above and beyond for maintenance. I guess, as you mentioned, to balance orders with production. Is this the first time -- it sounds like it's the first time in quite a while where you’ve had to do that. And is that, even though you mentioned that box demand is growing, is it just not quite enough, I guess, to run full out even with the maintenance?

Doyle Simons

Yes, let me correct that or clarify that, Chip. What we said is we took market downtime in the first quarter to match our supply with our demand. In the second quarter, all we said is we have normal maintenance related downtime of approximately 25,000 tons. Let me turn it over to Pat to talk a little bit about the market-related downtime that we took in the first quarter of 2011.

J. Maley

Doyle mentioned that we took roughly 20,000 tons of capacity out of the system both through shutdown and slowback, and that again was to match supply to our demand. As we stated, we thought going into the quarter that given the Mexico crop loss that we would be down 15,000 tons from a demand standpoint. That turned out to be 11,000. So that was the principal driver of us deciding to take that capacity out of the system.

Doyle Simons

As we’ve consistently said, Chip, we are committed to match our supply with our demand, and you saw that in the first quarter.

Chip Dillon - Crédit Suisse AG

Okay. That's very good. Thank you for that. And just the last quick question, you mentioned that your virgin fiber costs were actually down year-over-year, but I believe moved a little bit in the fourth quarter. It seems to me that where you operate, you're now seeing, at least woodchip prices continue to kind of be under downward pressure. Is that what you're seeing, and do you expect at least the wood cost to be sequentially flat or down?

Doyle Simons

We would anticipate that wood cost would be sequentially flat in the second quarter versus the first quarter. Now part of the number that you saw in the first quarter versus the fourth quarter had to do with additional volume.

Chip Dillon - Crédit Suisse AG

Oh, I got you.

J. Maley

Just if I could add to that, I would say the bias on pulp wood cost is maybe down. Flat would be, maybe worst case, I'd expect it to be down a little bit more than the first quarter.

Operator

Your next question comes from Mark Weintraub with Buckingham Research.

Mark Weintraub - Buckingham Research Group

Thank you. In putting the slide together on the second quarter 2011 for the Corrugated Packaging segment, Doyle, you highlighted three things, which I guess could be perceived as negative: the fewer shipping days; cost pressures, although it sounds like maybe there's a little offset on wood possible; and then the 27,000 tons maintenance downtime. Can that -- will that be offset though by the fact that you won't have the 20,000 tons of planned downtime and normal seasonal strengthening that you might typically see on the volume side in the second quarter, and so it's kind of a wash when we look 2Q to 1Q or how should we think about that?

Doyle Simons

Yes, let's talk about the volumes side because you pointed out a very good point, which is normally our box shipments are up 25,000 to 30,000 tons seasonally in the second quarter versus the first quarter. As a result of the fact that we had two less shipping days, we ship roughly 13,000 tons a day. That would result in 26,000 less tons. So just as you said, that should be a wash in the second quarter versus the first quarter in terms of total shipments.

Mark Weintraub - Buckingham Research Group

Okay, that's helpful. And then just lastly, the gypsum business, I know there had been price increase announcements which seemed to be getting pretty good traction. Yet in your comments, I heard you say just up a little bit. Just wanted to understand, I had thought from what I've been hearing from the outside that maybe we are getting more than just a little bit of pricing in gypsum.

Doyle Simons

I think that's right. My comments were focused on the first quarter, Mark. What I would tell you is that current gypsum prices are up in the $8 to $10 range versus the first quarter average. Just to put it in perspective, we announced a price increase in early March of 20%, and that is working through the system. And there has now been, we have now announced an additional price increase of 15% in late April, and we'll report next quarter how that one is playing out. So you are correct. Gypsum prices are improving.

Mark Weintraub - Buckingham Research Group

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from George Staphos with Merrill Lynch.

George Staphos

Quick question, given the need for market-related downtime in the first quarter, to the extent that you could discern this at all, did it lead to any price compression for your business in 1Q? And if so, could you provide some color around that?

Doyle Simons

George, I'm not sure I fully understand the question.

George Staphos

Well, you said that you needed to slow back, did that also go, hand in glove, so to speak, with any maybe margin or price compression you might have seen because of the market maybe being a bit more sluggish for you versus what your expectations might have been?

Doyle Simons

No. Let's talk about the three key variables of pricing in the first quarter because I actually thought pricing was a positive. We had indicated when we had our fourth quarter earnings release that we actually thought box prices would be down from a seasonal perspective regarding our mix in the first quarter. And actually, as we reported this morning, our box prices were flat. Here are the three key variables. One was there were some price resets in January as there always are, which was a positive. As we had previously mentioned, the seasonal mix was a negative, and the third key variable was we continued to gain traction on our strategic initiative to improve our mix and margins, which we've talked at length about. So net-net, pricing was flat in the quarter versus where we thought it might be down a little bit.

George Staphos

Okay. I appreciate that, Doyle. We joined the call late and also had trouble getting the slide deck. So appreciate that additional color. On the mix side in box, have you -- can you quantify or provide a little bit more detail in terms of how BPT II is enabling you to get in these markets and what traction you're seeing either from a volume standpoint or a mix standpoint?

Doyle Simons

I'm going to have Pat address that question.

J. Maley

As we've discussed the technology that we're putting into our plants as a result of the investment in Box Plant Transformation, it's all aimed at targeting a richer mix of business with higher graphics capability and short order quantities. And I would tell you that we're starting to see the benefits, although early, the benefits of that retooling of our plants. Our local business is up significantly, vis-à-vis our national account business, and the local business carries a significantly higher margin on average than the national business. And I just would amplify on the demand side, we've kind of talked around it a little bit but a little color. In March, I guess, as we were coming to the close of March, I would characterize our demand as up from a seasonal standpoint kind of a typical seasonal uplift. And as we've moved into April, I guess, I would upgrade that assessment. I would say that not only are we seeing a typical seasonal uplift, I would say it's somewhat stronger than that. We've -- in the last couple of weeks, two of the last four weeks, we've had bookings at close to all-time records for the company. So I would characterize this, the demand side as pretty darn strong right now as we move through April.

George Staphos

I have two last questions, and I'll turn it over. One, piggybacking off of that, which end market, if it's possible to disclose this, have you seen the biggest pickup in bookings in? And then back to the opportunity you have in high touch or local market opportunities. Is there any way, I realize it's early, but is there any way to frame either what you've gotten thus far in terms of revenues or tons or what you think the opportunity is for you, if not now, in two or three years from what you've done with BPT II? Thanks.

Doyle Simons

I would say that there's pretty broad-based strength in all markets both nondurable and durable markets. And pretty much across the country relative to where this Box Plant Transformation, the ability to niche up the business, is going. We're very excited about it. We're pleased with the progress we've made. And as we've said in the past, we'll give a more complete assessment and review of our progress at year end.

George Staphos

Thank you.

Doyle Simons

Thank you, George.

Operator

Your next question comes from Gail Glazerman with UBS.

Gail Glazerman - UBS Investment Bank

Going back to costs, as we look out to the second quarter, can you give some perspective -- you touched on virgin fiber cost but can you talk a little bit about how you see some other cost items moving into the quarter, into the second quarter?

Doyle Simons

Sure and what I'll provide, Gail, is kind of what current costs are versus the first quarter average. As you know, natural gas costs are up slightly, up roughly $0.15 currently versus the first quarter. As Pat and I both mentioned, virgin fiber is flat to maybe down slightly. OCC continues to be flat although at elevated levels. Freight, we continue to see cost pressures on freight, and in fact, that's driven by diesel cost, and diesel costs were up roughly 13% currently versus the first quarter average, and chemical costs are up slightly as well. So those are the key cost drivers for our company.

Gail Glazerman - UBS Investment Bank

Okay. And given the success that some of your suppliers have had on the freight side in pass -- implementing surcharges, is there anything that you can do there in terms of surcharges or passthrough to kind of manage some of this inflation or…

Doyle Simons

Gail, we do have discussions with our customers regarding surcharges.

Gail Glazerman - UBS Investment Bank

Okay. And when we think of the weather effect that you had in the first quarter, is it really the 11,000 tons of box volumes that you lost to Mexico or is there an operating impact, kind of an explicit operating impact that we should think goes away as we move to the second quarter?

J. Maley

Yes, I would say most of -- the 11,000 tons in Mexico is done. Obviously, the weather impact moved across the United States. That business wasn't lost, just delayed maybe with some higher costs incurred. I would tell you that Mexican shipments from our operations there are off a little bit. But as I commented about the overall demand side for Temple-Inland as we move through April, it's seasonally strong and a touch more than that, we're seeing, I think, the effects of what Doyle talks about is the re-acceleration of the U.S. economy. So we're pretty bullish on the demand side of this thing right now.

Gail Glazerman - UBS Investment Bank

Okay, that's great. Thank you.

Doyle Simons

Thank you, Gail.

Operator

Your next question comes from Mark Wilde with Deutsche Bank.

Mark Wilde - Deutsche Bank AG

Doyle, you have been very candid in the past about wanting to improve the returns on that converting side of your containerboard business versus the mill side. And I wondered if you’d just give us some sense of where you are in that process of bringing those returns up now because it's hard for us to see on a consolidated basis.

Doyle Simons

Mark, as you alluded to, and you're right, we’ve spent a lot of time, effort and money on first Box Plant Transformation I, and now we're focused on Box Plant Transformation II. I would tell you, we got the $80 million to the bottom line in Box Plant Transformation I, and then on Box Plant Transformation II, we had $10 million of benefit in 2010, and we still have $90 million of bottom line benefit in front of us. As we said last quarter, we anticipate $30 million in 2011 and then the balance in 2012, 2013 and as we have accelerated the spend on Box Plant Transformation, and we'll wrap 85% of that up by the end of this year, we may have the opportunity to move some of those outer years in. But just to put it in perspective, if the $90 million is worth another 400 basis points in our overall return for Corrugated Packaging. So as Pat said, we're very pleased with the progress we made on Box Plant Transformation, and we are very, very focused on driving that benefit to the bottom line and driving up our ROI for our overall Corrugated Packaging segment.

Mark Wilde - Deutsche Bank AG

Is it possible, Doyle, without putting too fine a point on this, to give us some sense of where you think, how big you think the benefit was in the first quarter this year versus last year when we look at that Corrugated segment?

Doyle Simons

Clearly there were some benefit, Mark, but as we've consistently said and as we did two years ago and then last year, we will update you specifically on those numbers on an annual basis. And part of that is just because it is lumpy from quarter to quarter, and we think the best way to tell the true picture of what's happening is to update you on an annual basis, and we will continue to do that. But clearly, there was some benefit from Box Plant Transformation in Q1 2011.

Mark Wilde - Deutsche Bank AG

Okay. Second question, Doyle. These two big increases in the gypsum wallboard market. I know prices got very, very low but a 20% followed by a 15%, what has changed in the business that you're confident you can get two consecutive hikes of that magnitude through?

Doyle Simons

Well, Mark, as you said, prices had fallen to very low levels. We are encouraged by the progress on the price increase and identified what that was, and we're focused on pushing that through. The April price increase will come later this month, and we will report to you next quarter on the success of that price increase. But we are encouraged by what's happening in gypsum. Part of what we've done is move more to the -- rather than the residential side to the commercial side. We have seen some improvement on the commercial side. And we'll just have to see how that plays out for the balance of the year.

Mark Wilde - Deutsche Bank AG

Okay. Then the last question I had, Doyle, I just was struck by your comments on sort of use of cash in terms of whatever is going to create the most value for shareholders. I wondered if you could kind of tie that together with what you might be seeing or what you might be thinking in terms of prospective acquisitions. Because I think clearly in the containerboard there are some assets that are out there right now. I assume that there are probably some things out there in the Building Products markets as well. So if you could just give us your thoughts on acquisitions on both sides of the business?

Doyle Simons

Sure. As we've consistently said, Mark, we'd like to grow our business. Now with that said, we have been and we're going to continue to be very disciplined based on ROI. So we will look at opportunities as they come along. We will run those through our filters, and if we can find acquisition opportunities that are consistent with our strategy, that will improve our overall ROI, and we always factor in the impact on our balance sheet, those are acquisitions that we would be very interested in, whether it be in Corrugated Packaging or in Building Products. As I had said on the last call, on the Building Products side, we are bullish long term on lumber based on what's happening on the Canadian situation with the pine beetle and the fact that more and more lumber is being exported to China. So we'll continue to look for opportunities going forward. But where you started your question was regarding our financial priorities. Our financial priorities remain unchanged. First and foremost is returning cash to shareholders through the dividend. As you know, we've increased our dividend now for two consecutive years. We didn't cut our dividend. Second is reducing our debt. Our targeted debt to cap is in the 35% to 40% range. We are making progress toward that. That's roughly $600 million of debt, and as we start to approach that level, we would consider share repurchase as another alternative use of cash. And then third is we'll continue to invest in our business. A big part of why we've been able to drive our returns, and we talked about it through Box Plant Transformation II, is we've invested our capital very wisely, and we're confident that capital has led to very sound returns and will continue to for our company. And finally, where I started, we will look for opportunities to profitably grow our business but as always be very disciplined based on ROI.

Mark Wilde - Deutsche Bank AG

Okay. Very good. Thanks, Doyle.

Doyle Simons

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Anthony Pettinari with Citi.

Anthony Pettinari - Citigroup Inc

On the Building Products side, your lumber volumes were up over 30%, and you had increases in particleboard and gypsum volumes as well, although housing starts have been pretty weak. Can you talk a little bit about what drove your volumes? Is it dealer restocking or are you picking up share? Can you just give us some color on what kind of demand you're currently seeing in the market?

J. Maley

This is Pat. I would say that as we've highlighted many times, our facilities are located really from a geographic standpoint next to some of the best markets in the United States. So to apply the broad brush of the health of the housing market to some of these markets might paint a little duller picture, if you will, than what's actually happening. And I think if you look at the lumber volumes in particular, last year as we remember the weather and incredible rain events, really constricted the amount of sawtimber that people could process. And basically we ran the wood yards to the amount of sawtimber that we could procure and then shut down. So we ran to the ground, if you will, frequently. This year, obviously, weather conditions were much better, and we were able to meet the demand requirements with increased throughput through the mills.

Anthony Pettinari - Citigroup Inc

Thank you. That's very helpful.

Operator

And your final question comes from Rick Skidmore with Goldman Sachs.

Richard Skidmore - Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Doyle, just a couple of questions. First on the containerboard side. How would you categorize your current inventory levels and with the downtime that you're taking for maintenance, are you going to see those inventories come down through the second quarter?

Doyle Simons

As we’ve said, we did take some, both maintenance and market downtime in the first quarter. And as a result, our inventories were down in the first quarter versus year end levels. We are now comfortable with our inventory levels in terms of being able to service our customers and have the appropriate level of inventories, and we'll just have to see how that plays out through the second quarter.

Richard Skidmore - Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Just second question, Doyle, can you just clarify what you meant in response to a previous question about your box prices being flat quarter-over-quarter? Because if I look at your press releases, when you report Corrugated Packaging revenue and Corrugated Packaging tons, it looks like on a per ton basis your prices are down about $24 quarter-over-quarter.

Doyle Simons

Yes, I'm glad you asked that question, Rick, because we want to be very clear on that. If you look at the information in the release, there's a timing issue there regarding accounting adjustments we make every quarter for deferred in-transit sales, and we can walk you through offline the details of that. But that happens every quarter. So the reason that we provide you with the pricing on Slide 6 in the slide deck that shows flat pricing is that takes out all the noise in the box prices. So our box prices as I indicated were flat in the first quarter versus the fourth quarter. That was actually a little better than we had anticipated because of the normal seasonal downturn in box pricing.

Richard Skidmore - Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Thanks, Doyle.

Doyle Simons

Thank you.

Operator

At this time, there are no further questions.

Doyle Simons

Okay. Well, thank you, everybody, for your interest in our company. And we look forward to talking to you next quarter.

Operator

This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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