Responsys May Still Have Some Upside

| About: Responsys (MKTG)

At $15.88, Responsys (NASDAQ:MKTG) trades 72% above the price point mid-range of $9.25. The current trailing 12 month P/E is 78 for the year ended December 2010, with a market capitalization of $700 million. [Our preview of the IPO.]

Looking ahead to 2011, according to the company's S-1, page 39, “subscription revenue for the quarter ending March 31, 2011 will be between 10% and 15% lower than subscription revenue for the quarter ended December 31, 2010.” In addition, “We have historically had higher subscription revenue in our fourth quarter than in other quarters during a given 12-month period.”

As regards valuation, according to the S-1, page 47, after-tax profit was $5.5 million for the December 2010 quarter.

Assuming subscription revenue is down 10-15% for the March 2011 quarter, let’s take the mid-point of 12.5% and apply that to December 2011 quarter’s net income as an estimate; the March 2011 quarter may produce net income in the range of $4.8 million.

Assuming the next three quarters average $5.5 million (realizing that the December 2011 quarter should be higher than the June and September quarters), then MKTG could earn in the neighborhood of $21.5 million for 2011, resulting in a P/E for 2011 of 33.

A P/E of 33 for 2011 leaves room for upside on the stock as the year progresses, and as 2012 sales and earnings become more visible.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.