By Roger Choudhury, Lead Editor
We screened for mid-cap and large-cap companies that are projected to outperform the general market with significant revenues growth potential. Here’s what we found:
AmerisourceBergen (NYSE:ABC) reports Q2 2011 earnings on April 28. The Street expects non-GAAP EPS of $0.69 per share, an increase of 9.37% with revenues of $19.9 B, which would be an increase of 3.34%. For Q1 2011, AmeriSourceBergen’s revenues increased 3% to $19.89B, and non-GAAP EPS increased by 9.6% to $0.57. For 2011, analysts estimate ABC will earn $2.42 per share (+9.04%) with revenues of $80.2 B (+2.92%). In FY 2010 through September, revenues grew by 8.63% to $77.954 B, and GAAP EPS went up by 33.73% to $2.22. However, the profit margins remains razor thin at 3.02%. The company also has a debt to equity ratio of 0.43. With a focus on oncology and generic drugs and health care reform, we are bullish on this company. ABC shares trade right above our fair value estimates, and we have a $44 price target. This would be a modest buy at current price levels.
Aflac (NYSE:AFL) is set to report on April 27. Analysts expect $1.53 in non-GAAP EPS, an increase of 13.29% over Q1 2010 with revenues of $5.6 B, which would be an increase of 10.19%. For 2011, analysts estimate that the company will earn $6.19 in non-GAAP EPS, an increase of 24.84% with revenues of $22.6 B, an increase of 8.85%. In 2010, revenues grew by 13.58% to $20.732 B, and GAAP EPS jumped by 55.17% to $4.95. The EBT margin also improved to 17.29% from 12.24%. The company also has a debt to equity ratio of 0.02. AFL shares have a 2.2% current yield.
We do not think higher claims costs from Japan and longer incidence to cancer insurance claims will have a significant impact on the company’s earnings. In the long-term, consistent earnings and revenues growth should drive shares higher. AFL shares trade below our fair value estimates and they have a PEG ratio of 0.8. So, we believe that now is the opportunity to buy on weakness.
Apache (NYSE:APA) reports Q1 2011 earnings on April 28. Analysts estimate APA will earn $2.59 in non-GAAP EPS, an increase of 24.50% over Q1 2010 with revenues of $3.8 B, which would be an increase of 40.35%. For 2011, analysts forecast that the company will make $11.55 in non-GAAP EPS (+36.75%) with revenues of $16.0 B (+32.14%). In 2010, revenues shot up by 40.36% to $12.092 B, and GAAP EPS returned to positive territory to $8.46 from -$0.87. The company also has a debt to equity ratio of 0.35.
Credit Suisse revised its medium-term WTI crude price forecast to $101/Bbl from $83/Bbl and long-term (2015+) price increased to $90/Bbl from $80/Bbl. This is a good driver for continued revenue growth. The company also made $11.5 B of acquisitions in 2010. Also, APA shares trade below our fair value estimates. We place a $152 price target, and believe this is a great buy at current price levels. Apache Corporation is an oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in the U.S., Canada, Egypt, U.K., North Sea, Australia and Argentina.
General Dynamics (NYSE:GD) reports Q1 2011 results on April 27. For the coming quarter, analysts estimate that the company will earn $1.61 in non-GAAP EPS, an increase of 4.43% over Q1 2010 with revenues of $7.9 B, which would be an increase of 1.82%. For 2011, analysts project that GD will earn $7.12 in non-GAAP EPS (+4.35%) with revenues of $33.7B (+3.93%). In 2010, revenues went up by 1.52% to $32.466 B, and GAAP EPS rose by 10.37% to $6.81. The profit margins also improved to 18.20% from 17.60%.
We expect demand growth for GD’s products and services to be driven by emerging markets as well as new product introductions (G250 and G650) [despite the G650 crash in New Mexico]. GD shares trade below our fair value estimates, and we believe that the company has too attractive a business model to pass up on. Buy soon. We place a price target of $84.
Harsco (NYSE:HSC) releases Q1 2011 earnings on April 28. For the coming quarter, analysts expect that the company will earn $0.04 in non-GAAP EPS, a decrease of 54.35% over Q1 2010 with $706.9 M, a decrease of 4.78%. For 2011, the Street estimates HSC will earn $1.33 in non-GAAP EPS, an increase of 885.46% with revenues of $3.1 B, an increase of 2.55%. In 2010, revenues grew by 1.61% to $3.039 B, and GAAP EPS plummeted by 94.56% to $0.08. The profit margin worsened to 23.10% from 24.69%.
Over the next several years, we believe that Harsco has multiple routes for revenue growth, including geographic expansion and gains in market share. Moreover, we think various industrial activity measures indicate that the industrial economy and machinery usage have been expanding since around mid-2009, and that led by stronger growth in emerging economies, the global economy is likely to get better. HSC shares trade below our fair value estimates, and we believe that it is a $40 stock. This is a good buy opportunity for those looking to cash in on an improving economy over the next 2 years.
Harsco is a worldwide industrial services and engineered products company. It serves major industries that are fundamental to global infrastructure development, including metals, construction, railways and energy.
Parker Hannifin (NYSE:PH) reports Q3 2011 earnings on April 27. Analysts believe that PH will earn $1.54 in non-GAAP EPS, an increase of 63.78% over Q3 2010 with revenues of $3.1 B, an increase of 17.19%. For 2011, analysts estimate PH will earn $6.20 in non-GAAP EPS (+82.22%) with $11.8 B (+18.42%). For the 6 months ended December 31, 2010, Parker-Hannifin’s revenues increased by 24% to $5.70 B, and non-GAAP EPS rose by 166.0% to $2.90. The EBT margin for the trailing 12 months improved to 10.28%. The company also has a debt to equity ratio of 0.34.
With a stagnant US economic recovery, we expect business volumes to steadily increase. However, the most growth will come from emerging economies. The company’s focus on productivity enhancements should also contribute to higher than average revenue growth in such an economic environment. We have a $105 price target on PH, and recommend it for long-term investors.
Parker Hannifin is the world's leading diversified manufacturer of motion and control technologies and systems, providing precision-engineered solutions for a wide variety of mobile, industrial and aerospace markets. The company employs approximately 55,000 people in 46 countries around the world. PH shares also have a current yield of 1.3%.
Reinsurance Group of America (NYSE:RGA) presents its Q1 2011 earnings on April 25. The analysts forecast that RGA will earn $1.57 in non-GAAP EPS, a decrease of 4.37% over Q1 2010 with revenues of $2.1B, an increase of 2.27%. For 2011, analysts estimate that the company will make $7.09 in non-GAAP EPS, a decrease of 7.77%, with revenues of $8.7 B, an increase of 4.78%. In 2010, revenues grew by 16.91% to $8.262 B, and GAAP EPS climbed by 38.56% to $7.69. The EBT margin also improved to 10.46% from 8.38%.
We believe that the fundamentals are strong in the reinsurance industry, bolstered by demand growth for reinsurance. We place a price target of $67, and so RGA shares provide a fair capital appreciation opportunity. We recommend this for investors looking to replace larger insurance companies. We would not add this to a portfolio with no insurance/reinsurance exposure because there are better opportunities out there.
The company is among the largest global providers of life reinsurance, with subsidiary companies or offices in Australia, Barbados, Bermuda, Canada, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Poland, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan, the U.K. and the U.S.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.