Seeking Alpha
Macro
Profile| Send Message|
( followers)  

Here's the economic calendar for the week commencing the 24th of April 2011. The week ahead holds a range of key economic events including much anticipated Q1 GDP results for the U.S. and U.K. Monetary policy meetings in the U.S., Japan and New Zealand. House price data and consumer confidence numbers in the U.S. And inflation numbers from Australia, Japan, and much of the Euro-Zone economies.

(More commentary follows the table)

Date GMT Country/ Currency Event Forecast Previous
MON 14:00 USD New Home Sales 280K 250K
MON 02:00 CNY Industrial Profits YTD YoY 34.30%
TUE 06:00 CHF Trade Balance (Swiss franc) 2.49B
TUE 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Government Debt-GDP Ratio 79.20%
TUE 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller 20 City MoM% SA -0.35% -0.22%
TUE 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) -3.27% -3.06%
TUE 14:00 USD Consumer Confidence 64.50 63.40
TUE 23:50 JPY Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) -5.40% 0.80%
TUE 23:50 JPY Retail Trade (YoY) -6.10% 0.10%
TUE EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.20% 0.50%
TUE EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) 2.40% 2.10%
TUE 01:30 AUD Consumer Prices Index (QoQ) 1.20% 0.40%
TUE 01:30 AUD Consumer Prices Index (YoY) 3.00% 2.70%
WED 08:30 GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 1.80% 1.50%
WED 08:30 GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) 0.50% -0.50%
WED 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial New Orders s.a. (MoM) 1.50% 1.20%
WED 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial New Orders (YoY) 21.80% 21.90%
WED 12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders 2.20% -0.60%
WED 12:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation 1.70% -0.30%
WED 13:00 CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI YoY% 3.90%
WED 16:30 USD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
WED 18:15 USD Fed's Bernanke Speaks at Press Conference
WED 21:00 NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50%
WED 23:30 JPY National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) -0.60% -0.60%
WED 23:30 JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) 0.00% 0.00%
WED 23:30 JPY Jobless Rate 4.80% 4.60%
WED 23:50 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) -10.60% 1.80%
WED 23:50 JPY Industrial Production (YoY) -8.50% 2.90%
WED JPY BOJ Target Rate 0.10% 0.10%
WED 01:30 AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY) 3.30% 3.40%
WED 01:35 CNY MNI Business Condition Survey 69.33
THU 05:00 JPY Housing Starts (YoY) 10.10%
THU 05:00 JPY Annualized Housing Starts 0.872M
THU 05:00 JPY Construction Orders (YoY) 19.50%
THU 06:45 EUR French Consumer Spending (YoY) 3.70% 5.50%
THU 07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change -37K -55K
THU 07:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. 7.00% 7.10%
THU 12:30 USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) 1.80% 3.10%
THU 12:30 USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index 2.40% 0.40%
THU 14:00 USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) -9.30%
THU 14:00 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) 1.50% 2.10%
THU 22:45 NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) 200M 194M
FRI 06:45 EUR French Producer Prices (YoY) 6.40% 6.30%
FRI 08:00 EUR Italian Unemployment Rate (SA) 8.40% 8.40%
FRI 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) 2.70% 2.60%
FRI 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate 9.90% 9.90%
FRI 09:00 EUR Italian Consumer Price Index (YoY) 2.60% 2.80%
FRI 10:00 EUR Italian Producer Price Index (YoY) 5.70%
FRI 12:30 USD Personal Income 0.40% 0.30%
FRI 12:30 CAD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 3.10% 3.30%
FRI 12:30 CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) 0.00% 0.50%
FRI 12:30 USD Personal Spending 0.50% 0.70%
FRI 13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence 70.00 69.60

As hinted, the Q1 GDP results for the U.K. and U.S. are due out this week and will be very closely watched by the market for clues as to how these two key developed market economies are tracking. The United Kingdom is up first on Wednesday, and is expected to show about 0.50% growth from Q4 2010, bringing annual growth to about 1.8%. The United States on Thursday is expected to show quarterly growth of about 0.50% (or 1.8% SAAR), bringing annual growth to about 2.3% - pulling the growth trajectory downwards.

Over to monetary policy, the most watched event will be the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee statement. Note - "statement," not "decision." It is getting closer and closer to the time when quantitative easing will be wound up - so any clues to this effect in the statement will be lapped up by the market - watch this one closely. The other two major banks, the Bank of Japan, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand - both of which have made further easings due to earthquakes - will almost certainly make no changes to policy or sentiment.

On inflation, Australia will release its first quarter inflation results; which is expected to be higher; about 1.2% q/q or 3.0% y/y. Japan is expected to see prices still flat on a headline basis (0%), but still in deflation on a core basis (about -0.6%). In the Euro-Zone, inflation is expected to rise to 2.7%, meanwhile Germany is expected to show annual inflation of 2.4%, and Italy 2.6%. Of course, on the inflation front, it will also be interesting to look into the price 'deflator' part of the GDP results both in the U.S. and U.K.

Elsewhere, the U.S. has the S&P/Case-Shiller house price data due out on Tuesday, with continued declines expected. The U.S. also has the conference board Consumer Confidence, and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index data out; both of which should see marginal improvement. In Japan, there is a range of data out, including the jobless rate (slight rise), Industrial production (decent fall m/m), retail trade (down), and housing starts. Japan's data will begin to show some of the economic impact of the earthquake.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates ...

Sources

+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Source: Economic Calendar: U.S. and U.K. GDP, More Inflation Data, And the Fed