Here's the economic calendar for the week commencing the 24th of April 2011. The week ahead holds a range of key economic events including much anticipated Q1 GDP results for the U.S. and U.K. Monetary policy meetings in the U.S., Japan and New Zealand. House price data and consumer confidence numbers in the U.S. And inflation numbers from Australia, Japan, and much of the Euro-Zone economies.
(More commentary follows the table)
|MON||14:00||USD||New Home Sales||280K||250K|
|MON||02:00||CNY||Industrial Profits YTD YoY||34.30%|
|TUE||06:00||CHF||Trade Balance (Swiss franc)||2.49B|
|TUE||09:00||EUR||Euro-Zone Government Debt-GDP Ratio||79.20%|
|TUE||13:00||USD||S&P/Case-Shiller 20 City MoM% SA||-0.35%||-0.22%|
|TUE||13:00||USD||S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY)||-3.27%||-3.06%|
|TUE||23:50||JPY||Retail Trade s.a. (MoM)||-5.40%||0.80%|
|TUE||23:50||JPY||Retail Trade (YoY)||-6.10%||0.10%|
|TUE||EUR||German Consumer Price Index (MoM)||0.20%||0.50%|
|TUE||EUR||German Consumer Price Index (YoY)||2.40%||2.10%|
|TUE||01:30||AUD||Consumer Prices Index (QoQ)||1.20%||0.40%|
|TUE||01:30||AUD||Consumer Prices Index (YoY)||3.00%||2.70%|
|WED||08:30||GBP||Gross Domestic Product (YoY)||1.80%||1.50%|
|WED||08:30||GBP||Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)||0.50%||-0.50%|
|WED||09:00||EUR||Euro-Zone Industrial New Orders s.a. (MoM)||1.50%||1.20%|
|WED||09:00||EUR||Euro-Zone Industrial New Orders (YoY)||21.80%||21.90%|
|WED||12:30||USD||Durable Goods Orders||2.20%||-0.60%|
|WED||12:30||USD||Durables Ex Transportation||1.70%||-0.30%|
|WED||13:00||CAD||Teranet/National Bank HPI YoY%||3.90%|
|WED||16:30||USD||Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision||0.25%||0.25%|
|WED||18:15||USD||Fed's Bernanke Speaks at Press Conference|
|WED||21:00||NZD||Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision||2.50%||2.50%|
|WED||23:30||JPY||National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY)||-0.60%||-0.60%|
|WED||23:30||JPY||National Consumer Price Index (YoY)||0.00%||0.00%|
|WED||23:50||JPY||Industrial Production (MoM)||-10.60%||1.80%|
|WED||23:50||JPY||Industrial Production (YoY)||-8.50%||2.90%|
|WED||JPY||BOJ Target Rate||0.10%||0.10%|
|WED||01:30||AUD||Private Sector Credit (YoY)||3.30%||3.40%|
|WED||01:35||CNY||MNI Business Condition Survey||69.33|
|THU||05:00||JPY||Housing Starts (YoY)||10.10%|
|THU||05:00||JPY||Annualized Housing Starts||0.872M|
|THU||05:00||JPY||Construction Orders (YoY)||19.50%|
|THU||06:45||EUR||French Consumer Spending (YoY)||3.70%||5.50%|
|THU||07:55||EUR||German Unemployment Change||-37K||-55K|
|THU||07:55||EUR||German Unemployment Rate s.a.||7.00%||7.10%|
|THU||12:30||USD||Gross Domestic Product (Annualized)||1.80%||3.10%|
|THU||12:30||USD||Gross Domestic Product Price Index||2.40%||0.40%|
|THU||14:00||USD||Pending Home Sales (YoY)||-9.30%|
|THU||14:00||USD||Pending Home Sales (MoM)||1.50%||2.10%|
|THU||22:45||NZD||Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars)||200M||194M|
|FRI||06:45||EUR||French Producer Prices (YoY)||6.40%||6.30%|
|FRI||08:00||EUR||Italian Unemployment Rate (SA)||8.40%||8.40%|
|FRI||09:00||EUR||Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY)||2.70%||2.60%|
|FRI||09:00||EUR||Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate||9.90%||9.90%|
|FRI||09:00||EUR||Italian Consumer Price Index (YoY)||2.60%||2.80%|
|FRI||10:00||EUR||Italian Producer Price Index (YoY)||5.70%|
|FRI||12:30||CAD||Gross Domestic Product (YoY)||3.10%||3.30%|
|FRI||12:30||CAD||Gross Domestic Product (MoM)||0.00%||0.50%|
|FRI||13:55||USD||U. of Michigan Confidence||70.00||69.60|
As hinted, the Q1 GDP results for the U.K. and U.S. are due out this week and will be very closely watched by the market for clues as to how these two key developed market economies are tracking. The United Kingdom is up first on Wednesday, and is expected to show about 0.50% growth from Q4 2010, bringing annual growth to about 1.8%. The United States on Thursday is expected to show quarterly growth of about 0.50% (or 1.8% SAAR), bringing annual growth to about 2.3% - pulling the growth trajectory downwards.
Over to monetary policy, the most watched event will be the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee statement. Note - "statement," not "decision." It is getting closer and closer to the time when quantitative easing will be wound up - so any clues to this effect in the statement will be lapped up by the market - watch this one closely. The other two major banks, the Bank of Japan, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand - both of which have made further easings due to earthquakes - will almost certainly make no changes to policy or sentiment.
On inflation, Australia will release its first quarter inflation results; which is expected to be higher; about 1.2% q/q or 3.0% y/y. Japan is expected to see prices still flat on a headline basis (0%), but still in deflation on a core basis (about -0.6%). In the Euro-Zone, inflation is expected to rise to 2.7%, meanwhile Germany is expected to show annual inflation of 2.4%, and Italy 2.6%. Of course, on the inflation front, it will also be interesting to look into the price 'deflator' part of the GDP results both in the U.S. and U.K.
Elsewhere, the U.S. has the S&P/Case-Shiller house price data due out on Tuesday, with continued declines expected. The U.S. also has the conference board Consumer Confidence, and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index data out; both of which should see marginal improvement. In Japan, there is a range of data out, including the jobless rate (slight rise), Industrial production (decent fall m/m), retail trade (down), and housing starts. Japan's data will begin to show some of the economic impact of the earthquake.
So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates ...
+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.