Lexmark Leans in Favor of the Short Side After Earnings

Lexmark International (LXK) is expected to report its Q1 results prior to the opening bell on Tuesday, April 26. Wall Street analysts are forecasting a profit from the company of $1.24 per share on revenue of $1.04 billion, according to Thomson Reuters.

Over the long term, we've found LXK has demonstrated aggressive follow-on widening moves following its last 15 of 24 earnings events.

Looking deeper into the data, the stock has gained on earnings news in only 10 of the 24 quarters we've tracked. Of those 10 examples, that upside move was extended in five quarters, or 50% of the time.

The stock tends to react negatively to earnings news, declining in 12 of the 24 quarters we've tracked. Of the 12 pre-market downside moves, the stock extended that move 10 times, or 83% of the time.

There were two other events where no pre-market trades were recorded.

The historical trading data follows:

On Feb. 1, 2011, LXK jumped 7.6% in pre-market trading after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock pushed even higher in that day's regular session, ending up 13.2%.

On Oct. 26, 2010, LXK tumbled 10.4% in pre-market trading after the company reported mixed Q3 results. The stock headed deeper in the red in that day's regular session, closing down 20.9%.

On July 27, 2010, the stock jumped 9.8% during pre-market trading after a Q2 beat. The stock rose a slightly tamer 8.4% the next day.

On April 27, 2010, LXK advanced 3.3% in pre-market trading after topping Q1 expectations. It narrowed its upside in that day's regular session, ending up 0.3%.

In the Feb. 2, 2010 pre-market session, the stock was up 13.8% after an earnings beat. Shares were up a slightly thinner 11.9% during regular trading that day.

In pre-market trading on Oct. 20, 2009, the stock jumped 11.4% after the company beat with Q3 expectations and guided for Q4 EPS to beat. Shares gained an even more aggressive 15.9% during regular trading later that day.

In the July 21, 2009, pre-market session, the stock fell 11.6% after a Q2 miss and Q3 guidance below the Street view. Shares tumbled a deeper 19.6% later that day.

On April 21, 2009, LXK shed 0.5% in pre-market trading after beating on earnings but missing on revenue. The stock added to its downside in the follow-on regular session, losing 3.7% by the April 21 closing bell.

On Jan. 27, 2009, the stock recorded no extended-hours trades after it reported. Shares edged up 0.4% the following regular session.

In the Oct. 21 pre-market, the stock did not record any trades following its 2-cent miss with EPS. Shares fell 11.3% during regular trading later that day.

In the pre-market of July 22, 2008, the stock fell 4.7% despite an earnings beat from the company. The stock fell 0.5% the following regular session.

On April 22, 2008, LXK eked out a 0.5% gain in pre-market trading after beating on Q1 but issuing weak guidance. The stock turned lower in that day's regular session, declining 8.3%.

On Jan. 29, 2008, LXK charged 12.4% higher in pre-bell action after blowing past Q4 expectations and setting earnings guidance above the then-current Street view. LXK added to its upside in the following regular session, ending the day with a gain of 15%.

On Oct. 23, 2007, LXK edged up 0.02% in pre-market trading after beating Q3 expectations and guiding above the Street for its Q4. It lost that thin gain in the following regular session, declining 7.1% by the close on Oct. 23.

In the July 24, 2007, pre-market LXK fell 2.3% after just topping with Q2 EPS and reporting revenue in line. The stock fell a slimmer 1.5% during the regular session.

On April 24, 2007, LXK tumbled 8.4% in pre-bell trading after missing Q1 earnings estimates and guiding Q2 below the Street view. It added slightly to this downside in the regular session, ending the day down 8.9%.

On Jan. 30, 2007, LXK slid 5.5% in pre-market trading after the company reported Q4 revenue flat with the year ago period but higher earnings. The stock added just slightly to its declines in the regular session, losing 5.6%.

On Oct. 24, 2006, LXK declined 3.6% in pre-market trading after the company reported a year-over-year decline in revenue and guided for flat to down revenue growth. The stock continued to slide in that day's regular session, losing 4.9%.

On July 25, 2006, LXK edged back 0.1% in pre-market trading after the company reported a year-over-year decline in quarterly revenue and guided for Q3 revenue to be flat to down. The stock recorded a far deeper decline in that day's regular session, losing 4.2% by the close.

On April 25, 2006, LXK firmed 7.4% in pre-market trading after the company beat Q1 expectations and guided in-line for its Q2 earnings. It shed some of the upside in that day's regular session, ending bell-to-bell trade up a more modest 3%.

On Jan. 24, 2006, LXK jumped 8.2% in pre-market trading after the company beat earnings expectations and guided its forward profit-view in-line to higher than the then-current estimates. The stock added to its upside in the Jan. 24 regular session, rising 11.3% by the closing bell.

On Oct. 25, 2005, LXK lost 3.3% in pre-market trading after the company reported Q3 results that topped estimates but also set its outlook at disappointing levels. The stock added to its downside momentum in the Oct. 25 regular session, ending the day down 6.5%.

On July 26, 2005 LXK lost 6.5% in pre-market trading after the company reported in-line EPS, revenue shy of expectations, and announced job cuts. It saw more aggressive downside pressure in the July 26 regular session, losing 10.4%.

On April 26, 2005 LXK tumbled 10.3% in pre-market action after missing Q1 expectations and guiding for a possible Q2 miss. Sellers hammered away at the stock between the bells, beating it down 14% by the close.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.