In the past, our screens mostly relied on objective financial data about companies. However, we can also use the Screener.co stock screener to screen based on consensus analyst estimates. First, we can look at the target price, the price that analysts believe the stock should trade for, and compare it to the most recent closing price. Those stocks with the biggest delta are believed by analysts to be most undervalued. Second, we can look at the consensus recommendation, a score from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell) that is an indicator of analyst sentiment about the stock. Obviously, lower numbers are better. Let's limit ourselves to companies with more than $1B of revenue and use the following criteria:
Field | op | Criteria |
Target price | > | 1.5 * Price-closing or last bid |
Consensus recommendation | < | 2 |
Country Located In | != | "China" |
Total Revenue(A) | > | 1,000,000,000 |
Sector | != | "Financial" |
We require that the target price be at least 50% above the current price and a 2 (Buy) or better consensus recommendation. Sorting by descending YoY revenue growth rate yields the following 8 results with positive growth rates, as of 4/22/2011:
Symbol | Company Name |
Power-One, Inc. | |
Kinross Gold Corporation (USA) | |
BioScrip Inc. | |
Lear Corporation | |
US Airways Group, Inc. | |
Systemax Inc. | |
Cenveo, Inc. | |
Valassis Communications, Inc. |
Power-One (PWER) has a consensus recommendation of 1.8 and a target price of $11.70 despite closing at $7.69. Its target price is 52% above its closing price and it grew revenue 143% YoY. The company has a strong balance sheet and is trading at an EV/EBITDA ratio of just 1.92. However, the company does not anticipate being able to keep up its growth--in fact, analysts are projecting YoY revenue shrinkage this year. However, at its current valuation, they remain relative bullish on the company's prospects.
Systemax (SYX) is a retailer that owns the CompUSA and TigerDirect brands. The company has a consensus recommendation of 1 and a target price of $21, a 64% premium to the most recent closing price of $12.82. It grew revenue 13.4% YoY but is still trading at an EV/EBITDA ratio of just 4.45. The stock is relatively thinly traded and it only has two analysts following it. In addition, the head of the company's technology products group was recently terminated following an anonymous whistleblower complaint. While the company's current valuation is attractive, I do not think it fully reflects the cloud of impropriety that currently hangs over the company. The company has not yet disclosed what the issue that prompted the whistleblower complaint was; until that information hits the market, I will keep my distance....unless the valuation multiples decline further.
Cenveo (CVO) is a printing company with a consensus recommendation of 1.5 and a target price of $11.50, 84.6% above the closing price of $6.23. It managed to grow revenue 5.8% YoY despite being in a declining market. It is trading at an EV/EBITDA ratio of 8.4. Being a "digital native," I could not imagine buying into a printing or paper products company at this juncture, even if the EV/EBITDA ratio were lower. The market faces enormous challenges ahead.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

