Retail, Housing, Consumer Data on Tuesday's Economic Calendar

by: optionMONSTER

By Bryan McCormick

The economic calendar includes the usual Tuesday releases for retail, housing data, regional manufacturing, and consumer confidence. These are the most daily reports we will see for the week until Friday.

At 7:45 a.m. ET, the ICSC/Goldman Store Sales report will be released. There are two parts to the report, the week-over-week and year-over-year changes. Most traders focus on the year-over-year number because it is a better indicator of the longer-term trend.

The last week-over-week number showed a gain of 0.3 percent. The year-over-year data in the previous report indicated a 3 percent rise. Stronger-than-expected positive numbers would be seen as bullish while negative numbers would be bearish.

Redbook Store Sales will be reported at 8:55 a.m. ET. As with the ICSC-Goldman report, there are two components to watch. One is the more volatile month-over-month change, and the other is the year-over-year change, which shows the broader trend best.

The last month-over-month change was 1.1 percent. The previous report's year-over-year data showed a gain of 5.1 percent. Negative numbers in either series would be bearish.

The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index comes out at 9 a.m. ET. The forecast calls for a non-seasonally adjusted drop of -1 percent. The seasonally adjusted change is forecast to be a smaller -0.3 percent drop.

Few expect good news from home price data. The outlier would therefore be much smaller drops or gains.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index results will be reported at 10 a.m. ET. Consensus calls for a slight rise to 65 from the previous month's 63.4. The range in possible outcomes is wide, from a bearish 57 to a bullish 68. Market reactions would be very strong if the numbers comes in at either end of that range.

The Richmond Fed's Manufacturing Index will also come out at 10 a.m. ET. This survey was once so small that it was not followed but, in the current climate, traders are looking increasingly at the full scope of regional data.

There is no forecast available for the number, but last month's composite reading came in at 20. The services portion came in at 14.

As with many of the regional surveys, the numbers are quite volatile. It might take a change of 20 percent or more from these previous values to produce a strong market reaction.