Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Monday April 25.
Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO), British American Tobacco (NYSEMKT:BTI), National Grid (NYSE:NGG), Pearson (NYSE:PSO), Vodafone (NASDAQ:VOD). Other stocks mentioned: Verizon (NYSE:VZ), AT&T (NYSE:T), T-Mobile (OTCQX:DTEGY)
Given the chatter on The Street, one might think that the macro situation is what is driving stocks, but what are people really talking about? The upcoming Royal Wedding between Prince William and Kate, of course. The media is speculating about who is going to be on the guest list, and Cramer made his own guest list of British stocks that deserve the red carpet treatment. With "stiff upper lip austerity," the British government has made draconian yet necessary spending cuts to get the economy back on track. While these measures may be painful for the British population, they are a boon for shareholders. "It's a royal pain for a royal gain," declared Cramer, as he revealed his guest list of stocks:
Rio Tinto (RIO) is the second largest miner in the world. RIO has exposure to iron ore, coal, aluminum, rare metals and even diamonds. Once China finishes raising interest rates, Rio will go full steam ahead, and has already reported great numbers and bought back $5 billion in shares last year. "They are going to be right up front."
British American Tobacco (BTI) has been a major consolidator of tobacco companies and has 20% market share. Two-thirds of its sales are from emerging markets, where smoking is still not quite taboo.
National Grid (NGG) is a consistent dividend-raiser with a 5.6% yield.
Pearson (PSO) is an exception to the rule that publishing companies are not profitable. This publisher of the Financial Times and Penguin Books is the best performer in its sector. Pearson is a success story, since it has embraced the internet and emerging markets.
Vodafone Group (VOD) is an international wireless provider that owns 45% of Verizon (VZ) Wireless and is the real winner in the deal between AT&T (T) and T Mobile (OTCQX:DTEGY), as pricing competition in the U.S. will evaporate. Vodafone has 360 million customers in 30 countries. Cramer likes the stock even more than he did when he recommended it at a lower price.
BP (NYSE:BP), Lloyds Banking Group (NYSE:LYG), BT Group (NYSE:BT), Diageo (NYSE:DEO). Other stocks mentioned: Citigroup (NYSE:C), Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE:RY), Arm Holdings (NASDAQ:ARMH), Petrobras (NYSE:PBR), Windstream (NASDAQ:WIN), CenturyLink (NYSE:CTL), Telefonica (NYSE:TEF), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)
While some stocks are receiving invitations to the British Royal Wedding, others are going to have to stay home. Cramer listed five stocks London is not calling:
BP (BP) is too controversial. Scandalous stocks are no more popular than the black sheep of the Royal Family. Even though the Gulf of Mexico oil spill is over, BP isn't likely to recover from the lawsuits until 2016. Now BP is having headaches over a deal it made with a Russian oil firm, and it looks like BP might get edged out in favor of a foreign rival.
Lloyds (LYG) is even harder to own than Citigroup (C), although Cramer mentioned he likes Citi's numbers. Lloyds is two years behind the recovery and has had to make drastic cuts. "The chart is simply awful." Cramer would not own any British banks, but would look to Canada, particularly the Royal Bank of Canada (RY).
BT Group (BT) is a low-yielding version of Windstream (WIN), with an 8% dividend and CenturyLink (CTL) which yields 7.4%. With a paltry 3.3% payout, BT is a landline and internet operator that is not worth buying. Cramer would prefer to buy either WIN or CTL.
Diageo (DEO) may be the creator of the popular Johnny Walker brand, but it will be hurt by a weak dollar. Diageo might be invited to the Royal Wedding, but it will have to sit in the paupers' seats.
Cramer took some calls:
Petrobras' (PBR) ticker symbol reminds Cramer of Pabst Blue Ribbon, and he told a caller he would rather have a can of the beer than hold the stock. He was bullish on PBR, but the company's dilutive offering has been such a shock that he feels the company has lost its credibility.
Telefonica (TEF) is okay, but Cramer says he doesn't want to buy any Spanish stock.
The Bears Aren't So Scary: SodaStream (NASDAQ:SODA), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), Kimberly-Clark (NYSE:KMB), Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG), Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU), Phillips Van Heusen (NYSE:PVH), VFCorp (NYSE:VFC), Ralph Lauren (NYSE:RL), Hess (NYSE:HES)
Stocks are being hit with rumors of disaster, and Cramer tackled the bearish theses one by one:
1. Gold is Peaking. Cramer says he's heard this argument for six years, and gold is still the best asset class on Earth. Gold is still "ridiculously underrepresented" in portfolios and comprises just 1.5% of holdings. Gold cannot be considered overbought until it reaches 5% of portfolio holdings.
2. Oil is Peaking. Oil should have peaked already, and with demand not abating, it will not go down big, especially with a still volatile political situation in the Mid-East.
3. Grains Are Going Down. Cramer thinks this is unlikely given the global demand for food and the rising middle class in emerging market countries.
4. China is Crashing. China is still the best-run economy in the world and if it has any decline, the landing will be soft.
5. Home Prices Are Declining. Actually, there has been no real advance or decline in home prices in the last two years.
6. Growth Stocks are Halting. The 52-week high list is still filled with high octane growth stocks. SodaStream (SODA) is a winner in the space. People are freaking out too much about Netflix's (NFLX) conservative guidance. Apple is back.
Cramer took some calls:
Lululemon (LULU), Phillips Van Heusen (PVH), VFCorp (VFC), Ralph Lauren (RL) are all companies with incredible pricing power because of the strength of their brands. These retailers can stay ahead of rising raw costs.
Hess (HES) is the company most levered to rising oil prices. The stock is resting now after a remarkable run. Cramer hopes it will continue to drop to provide a buying opportunity.
Oceaneering International (OII), Schlumberger (SLB): Cramer is wary of deep water drillers, particularly because Washington is not giving these companies the green light. "Look at Schlumberger's quarter and you will understand...it was not what I wanted," although Cramer conceded SLB is a better company than OII.
Suntrust (STI): Banks are just too hated by Washington and should not be owned. "I just can't take that anymore. I don't know why you should."
Macy's (M) has consistently beat earnings estimates, but the stock won't rise. Retail stocks are being kept down by high oil prices. Since Macy's is a good company, Cramer prefers to wait it out than to sell the stock.
For investors who don't yet own gold, Cramer would buy some. However, investors who have a significant amount of gold should hold off before buying.
Cramer listed his favorite ways to own gold:
1. Bullion, for which there is no mark-up, but storage fees can be considerable
2. SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) is a near perfect commodity ETF (and Cramer is no fan of commodity ETFs). Investors need not worry that there is no gold actually owned.
4. Novagold (NG) is a speculative gold stock which is like a call option on gold. While the company might not see significant profits for a few years, it has great, safe assets.
5. Coins are a handy way to own gold, but the mark-up on coins is excessive.
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