Longs Eke Out Advantage in Baidu's Earnings-Driven Trade

Longs hold a slight advantage in generating gains off Baidu's (BIDU) post-earnings trade. Even on a downside move in tonight's after-hours session, longs have been able to take advantage of a historical tendency for the stock to narrow its earnings-driven after-hours declines, or see the negative trade reverse into the green.

BIDU has recorded an earnings-driven after-hours decline in seven of the last 22 quarters we've tracked. In five of those seven quarters, or 71% of the time, the stock has seen its evening downside narrow or reverse direction in the following day's regular session.

On the plus side, BIDU has recorded an earnings-driven after-hours gain in 15 of the 22 quarters tracked in our database. In eight of those quarters, or 53% of the time, the stock has moved further into the green in the follow-on regular session.

Baidu (BIDU) is due with its Q1 results in tonight's after-hours session, and analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect the company to post a mean profit of $0.45 per share on revenue of $367 million.

On Jan. 31, 2011, BIDU surged 8% in after-hours trading after posting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock added to its upside the following day, closing the Feb. 1 regular session up 9.3%.

On Oct. 21, 2010, BIDU gained 1.8% in evening trading after beating on Q3 and setting its guidance above expectations. The stock added to its upside the next day, closing the Oct. 22 regular session up 4.6%.

On July 21, 2010, BIDU advanced 3.6% in after-hours trading after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. It lost most of that gain the following day, closing the July 22 regular session up 1.5%.

On April 28, 2010, BIDU surged 13.5% in after-hours action after beating Q1 estimates and setting its guidance above the Street view. It added to its gains the following day, closing the April 29 regular session up 14.2%.

On Feb. 9, 2010, BIDU advanced 8.6% in after-hours trading after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock added to its upside in the Feb. 10 regular session, ending up 10.1%.

On Oct. 26, 2009, BIDU tumbled 12.9% in evening trading after missing revenue expectations and setting disappointing guidance. The stock narrowed its downside slightly the next day, ending off 11.3% on Oct. 27.

On July 23, 2009, BIDU declined 2.3% in after-hours trading despite reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock reversed course the following day, ending the July 24 regular session up 7.6%.

On April 27, 2009, BIDU advanced 4.4% in after-hours trading after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock lost its gain the following day, declining 1.6% by the close on April 28.

On Feb. 18, 2009, the stock edged up 0.8% after reporting revenue in line to above the Street but missing by a penny with earnings. Shares gained 3.5% the next day.

On Oct. 22, 2008, BIDU declined 2.8% in after-hours trading despite posting better-than-expected results and issuing in-line to better guidance. The stock pushed deeper south the following day, losing 14.6% by the Oct. 23 close.

On July 23, 2008, BIDU gained 12.9% in night trading after besting Q2 expectations. It recorded a fatter gain the next day, rising 14.8% by the close on July 24.

On April 24, 2008, BIDU gained 1.6% in after-hours trading after topping Q1 estimates and guiding above the then-current Street view for Q2. The stock firmed higher the next day, closing the April 25 regular session up 6.3%.

On Feb. 13, 2008, the stock gained 6.2% during evening trading after beating with Q4 results but guiding below the Street with Q1. The stock gained 1.3% the next day.

On Oct. 25, 2007, the stock fell 3.9% during evening trading after BIDU beat the Street with Q3 results. Shares reversed to close up 5.7% the next day.

On July 25, 2007, BIDU jumped 18.4% in evening activity after beating Q2 sales estimates and forecasting Q3 sales above Street views. Shares, though, eased off and closed the next regular session up 14%.

On April 26, 2007, BIDU soared 21.6% in night trading after beating Q1 estimates and forecasting Q2 above Street views. However, shares gave back some of those gains the next day to close the regular session up 13.9%.

On Feb. 14, 2007, BIDU edged up 0.8% in after-hours trading on the heels of meeting on revenue, beating on EPS, and issuing disappointing guidance. The stock turned to the red on Feb. 15, losing 7.6% between the bells.

On Oct. 31, 2006, the stock fell 3.6% in the evening hours after the company beat with its latest earnings but guided below the Street's view. The loss narrowed slightly, to 2.8% by the close of trading the following day.

On July 26, 2006, BIDU slid 14% in after hours despite beating Q2 expectations. The shares tumbled even further the next day, closing the regular session down 20.8%.

On May 9, 2006, BIDU soared 22.5% in evening trading after beating Q1 estimates and forecasting Q2 sales above Street views. Shares climbed higher the next day, ending the regular session up 36.8%.

On February 21, 2006, BIDU gained 12.4% in night trading when the company topped Q4 estimates and said Q1 sales would beat expectations. Shares though, lost their momentum and closed 5.4% higher in the next regular hours trading session.

On October 26, 2005, BIDU plunged 15.6% in after hours when the company beat Q3 sales expectations but missed on earnings. The shares recovered some ground the next day, closing the regular session down 13.2%.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.