Definitely an interesting market Tuesday as the Federal Reserve announces they are still committed to ending QE2 at the end of June and see no signs of inflation (They obviously have not picked up a half gallon a milk recently). I continue to believe the market has got a considerable way past fair value in its recent run up since QE2 was announced, and is due for a summer correction. High beta stocks have run the furthest from their intrinsic value in my opinion. In a perfect world, a stock's value should increase somewhat in line with its earnings as well as its future earnings prospects. Here are six overvalued equities whose stock prices have run way ahead of their earnings prospects in the last ninety days and are highly vulnerable in any market pullback.
Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) - Baidu, Inc. provides Chinese and Japanese language Internet search services. Its search services enable users to find relevant information online, including Web pages, news, images, multimedia files, and blogs through the links provided on its Websites. BIDU is a Cramer favorite and has had huge run in 2011 as well as 2010. Consensus earnings expectations for 2012 have improved from $3.42 to $3.76 over the last 90 days, an almost 10% increase. BIDU's stock price has increased over 41% in same time period. At 60 times this year's earnings and over 40 times trailing 12 month revenues, this equity could be significantly sold off in any pullback.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. develops and operates fast-casual, fresh Mexican food restaurants in the United States. It also operates restaurants in Toronto, Canada and in London, the United Kingdom. Earnings expectations for 2012 have increased a little over 3% since January 26th. Stock price has increased over 21% in same time period. At roughly 40 times earnings and 4 times sales, this equity is vulnerable to selloff especially given rising energy and food prices.
Citrix Systems (CTXS) - Citrix Systems, Inc. designs, develops, and markets technology solutions that deliver applications on-demand worldwide. Insiders have sold over 53% of their shares over the last six months. A mirror image of CMG, 2012's earnings estimates have gone up 3% in last ninety days, its stock price has increased over 21% since then. Citrix Systems is trading right at its 52 week high. The stock is selling at 32 times this year's projected earnings and over seven times revenues.
Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) - Lululemon Athletica Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and distribution of athletic apparel and accessories for women, men, and female youth in Canada, the United States, and Australia. 2012's consensus earnings estimates have increased an impressive 12% since late January, stock price has increased over 44% in same time period. LULU sells at approximately nine times sales and close to 45 times projected earnings for 2011. I like this company, but stock is very vulnerable to rising gas prices and its impact on consumer spending. In last gas spike of 2008, stock lost over 50%.
Taleo Corporation (TLEO) – TaleoCorporation provides on-demand talent management software solutions. Its products include Taleo Enterprise, which supports medium and large enterprises in talent management processes ranging from sourcing, recruiting, and onboarding to performance management, goals management, development planning, succession planning, and compensation. Insiders have sold 29% of their shares over the last six months. Earnings estimates for 2012 have been dead flat over the last 90 days, yet the stock has gone up 20%. The stock is selling at 37 times this year's projected earnings and over 8.5 times revenues.
Ultimate Software Group (ULTI) – The Ultimate Software Group, Inc. designs, markets, implements, and supports unified human capital management software-as-service (SaaS) solutions to businesses, providing a single source for comprehensive human resources, payroll, and talent management technology. Insiders have sold 20% of their shares over the last six months. Earnings estimates for 2012 have actually come down over 2% since late January, yet the ULTI has gone up over 13% over same time period. The stock is selling at 76 times this year's projected earnings and over six times revenues.