PMC-Sierra (NASDAQ:PMCS) offers the better trade for the long side off its after-hours earnings report. The stock has a history of adding to an earnings-driven after-hours gain in the following day's regular session while its performance off an evening decline is a bit less enthusiastic but still capable of making a deeper move into the red.
PMCS is one for longs to watch tonight as the stock has seen an after-hours gain in 13 of the 26 quarters we've tracked. And in nine of those 13 quarters, the stock recorded larger gains in the following regular session. On the downside, PMCS is mixed, with 13 quarters featuring an evening negative move. Of that number, the stock narrowed its downside five times in next-day trade, widened seven times, and once saw its evening decline remain the same in the following regular session.
PMC-Sierra is due to report its Q1 results in the extended-hours tonight, and analysts polled by Thomson Reuters are expecting a mean profit of $0.12 per share on revenue of $155 million.
Here's the history on PMCS:
On Jan. 27, 2011, PMCS plummeted 13.5% in after-hours trade after coming in with Q4 EPS shy of the Street view. The stock saw its downside narrow slightly the next day, ending the Jan. 28 regular session off 12.8%.
On Oct. 21, 2010, the stock rose 0.5% after the company meets the Street view with quarterly results. Shares were up 6.5% the next day.
On July 22, 2010, PMCS declined 3.1% in evening trade despite posting better-than-expected Q2 results. The stock dropped further the next day, closing the July 23 regular session down 4.5%.
On April 22, 2010, PMCS declined 2.9% in after-hours trade after topping Q1 expectations. It added slightly to its downside on April 23, closing the regular session down 3%.
On Jan. 28, 2010, the stock was up 8.2% after a Q4 beat. The gain was reduced to 2.4% the next day.
On Oct. 22, 2009, the stock fell 2.6% during evening trading after beating by a penny and meeting with revenue. The stock fell a steeper 7.2% the next day.
On July 23, 2009, the stock fell 0.3% in evening trading despite a Q3 earnings beat. Shares rebounded to gain 1.8% the next day.
On April 23, 2009, the stock gained 8.7% in evening trading after a Q1 beat. Shares more than widened that gain with a 19% jump in the following day's regular session.
On Jan. 29, 2009, PMCS advanced 1% in evening trade after reporting revenue ahead of estimates. The stock added to its upside in the following regular session, rising 4.7% by the close on Jan. 30.
On Oct. 16, 2008, PMCS declined 6.9% in after-hours trade after reporting better-than-expected earnings and revenue in-line with estimates. The stock added to its downside the next day, losing 14.3% by the close on Oct. 17.
On July 17, 2008, PMCS declined 1.9% in after-hours trade despite beating Q2 expectations. The stock cut its downside in the following regular session, losing 0.6% by the closing bell.
On April 17, 2008, PMCS advanced 8.1% in night trade on the back of better-than-expected Q1 results. The stock soared higher in the April 18 regular session, advancing 17.9%.
On Jan. 24, 2008, PMCS gained 1% in after-hours trade after reporting Q4 results about in line with expectations. It turned sharply lower the following day, ending the Jan. 25 regular session down 10.4%.
On Oct. 18, 2007, PMCS advanced 8.6% in after-hours trade after beating Q3 expectations. It held much of its gain the following day narrowed slightly, ending the Oct. 19 regular session up 8%.
On July 19, 2007, PMCS advanced 2.3% in after-hours trade after the company met Q2 earnings expectations and missed slightly on revs. The stock continued to move higher in the July 20 regular session, rising 5.6%.
On April 25, 2007, PMCS gained 4.4% in the evening hours after the company beat by a penny. The gain was a steeper 7% the next day.
On Jan. 25, 2007, the stock gained 1.4% after the company beat with revenue but missed with EPS. The stock was up 1.6% the next day.
On Oct. 19, 2006, PMCS shed 3.1% in night trade despite beating Q3 sales estimates and meeting on EPS. Shares, though, regained their composure and ended the next day session up 4.1%.
On July 20, 2006, the stock fell 2.5% in the evening session after the company beat with sales and reported in line with EPS. The loss swelled to 26.3% the next day.
On April 20, 2006, PMCS rose 2.2% in after-hours when the company topped Q1 expectations. However, the shares lost steam and ended the next day's regular session down 0.08%.
On Jan. 25, 2006, shares fell 4.6% in evening trade after the company met expectations for earnings but fell a bit short on sales. A same-sized decline was recorded the next day.
On Oct. 19, 2005, PMCS fell 3% in immediate response to after-hours results showing Q3 revenues were $76.2 million, just below the FC mean for $77 million. Non-GAAP EPS were $0.07, a penny ahead of the FC mean. Shares fell a steeper 13% during the following day's regular trading.
On July 21, 2005, PMCS ended the after-hours session down 2.3%. It had just missed Q2 revenue estimates and matched EPS forecasts. PMCS widened its losses in the next day regular hours session, closing down 5%.
On April 20, 2005, PMCS fell 4% after hours after reporting in-line revenue and earnings per share that beat the Street target by 1 cent. It did an about-face in the April 21 regular session, climbing 6.9%.
On Jan. 27, 2005, PMCS rose 3.6% in after-hours trading after meeting EPS expectations but missing on revenue. It widened this move in the Jan. 28 regular session, closing up 5.1%.
On Oct. 20, 2004, PMCS rose 5.3% after the bell on results that met Street targets. It widened the gain in the Oct. 21 regular session, jumping 10.2%.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.