The Hedge Fund Fortress Top?

On Friday, Doug Kass was calling today's opening surge the "Fortress Top" as the hedge fund Fortress (FIG) went public.

I don't disagree that hedge funds going public are dubious, given their "reliable earnings stream and safety from blow ups."

In a note to subscribers Thursday, I explained why big cap tech was looking so risky, and why Microsoft (MSFT) was potentially ugly. Friday, Cantor's Peter Bookvar noted that Microsoft was down 7 days in a row and down 9 of 10 trading days on nervousness that Vista sales are sluggish - but let's not forget MS Office, or the iPod killer, Zune . . .

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On a related note, a hedge fund buddy disagrees with me that sentiment has been leaning bullish, but not excessively so as to be a contra-indicator. SF thinks the general attitude has been frothy to the point of excess. To wit: earnings shortfall seem to be deemed company specific while good reports are proof of the economy being bullet proof. Then there is the analyst community tripping over itself to call a bottom in SemiConductors; All that's before we get to the GM (GM) upgrades, which are to say somewhat starry eyed as to behemoth's problems and decreasing market share.

Sources:
I Am Calling This the Fortess Market Top
Doug Kass
Real Money, 2/9/2007 10:28 AM EST
http://www.thestreet.com/i/dps/te/theedge1.html#entryId10337996

Semis Ready to Roll Again
INVESTORS' SOAPBOX, J.P. Morgan Securities
Barron's FEBRUARY 9, 2007
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB117097979867103006.html