Texas Roadhouse a Strong Play for Longs on Earnings-Driven After-Hours Gains

| About: Texas Roadhouse, (TXRH)

Texas Roadhouse (NASDAQ:TXRH) is expected to report Q1 results after the close. The company is seen earning $0.29 per share on sales of $282 million, according to the mean estimate of the analysts polled by Thomson Reuters.

TXRH favors a widening trend in its movement between the after-hours market and the next day's session following an evening earnings event. In the data we have collected, shares have widened 12 times, reversed six times, and recorded two events where flat evening trade was followed by next day regular session gains.

Looking deeper into the performance data, TXRH has recorded an earnings-driven after-hours gain in nine quarters tracked in our database. In seven of those quarters, or about 78% of the time, the stock added to its evening gains by the following day's regular session close.

On the downside, TXRH recorded earnings-driven after-hours declines in nine quarters, adding to its negative performance the following day in five of those events, or 56% of the time.

On Feb. 22, 2011, TXRH declined 4% in after-hours trading after missing Q4 EPS estimates and meeting on revenue. The stock narrowed its downside slightly the following day, closing the Feb. 23 regular session off 3.6%.

On Nov. 1, 2010, TXRH ended evening trading flat after beating Q3 estimates and setting its 2010 EPS growth forecast at the high end of the company's range. The stock found upside footing in the Nov. 2 regular session, gaining 2% by that day's close.

On August 2, 2010, the stock edged up 0.7% after after the company beat with earnings and met the Street's view with revenue. Shares rose a slimmer 0.5% the next day.

On May 3, 2010, TXRH slid 2.5% in after-hours trading despite beating Q1 expectations. The stock added to its declines in the May 4 regular session, ending down 4.4%.

TXRH ended the Feb. 22, 2010 after-hours session flat after beating earnings expectations and meeting on revenue. The stock firmed to the plus-side the following day, closing the Feb. 23 regular session up 6.6%.

On Nov. 2, 2009, the stock gained 5.9% after a Q3 beat. Shares jumped 16.7% the next day.

On Aug. 3, 2009, TXRH edged 0.2% lower after posting Q2 results down from year ago levels. The stock added to its downside the following day, ending the Aug. 4 regular session down 6.5%.

On May 4, 2009, TXRH advanced 3.3% in evening trading after the company beat earnings expectations and met the Street's revenue view. The stock churned higher the following day, ending the May 5 regular session up 7.6%.

On Feb. 23, 2009, the stock fell 3.5% after meeting with Q4 earnings. Shares fell 5.5% the next day.

On Oct. 27, 2008, TXRH declined 4.6% in night trading on the back of disappointing results and guidance. It narrowed that decline slightly the next day, closing the Oct. 28 regular session down 3.7%.

On July 28, 2008, the stock gained 3% in extended-hours trading after TXRH beat with Q2. The gain more than doubled the next day and shares closed up 7.8%.

On April 28, 2008, TXRH firmed 5.7% in night trading after topping earnings expectations. The stock jumped higher the next day, rising 12.3% by the closing bell.

On Feb. 19, 2008, TXRH declined 15.1% in after-hours trading after missing Q4 expectations. It cut back its downside the following day, ending the Feb. 20 regular session down 6.6%.

On Oct. 29, 2007, TXRH firmed 12.3% in after-hours trading after just beating on Q3 sales expectations and setting guidance mostly to match the Street. The stock headed even higher in the Oct. 30 regular session, ending the day up 15.5%.

On July 30, 2007, the stock fell 4.8% in the evening hours after reporting revs up over the year-ago period but flat earnings. The stock was down 5.5% the next day.

On April 30, 2007, the stock was up 5.9% in the evening hours after TXRH reported ahead of the Street with Q1 earnings. The stock gained a slimmer 3.7% the next day.

On February 20, 2007, TXRH edged up 2.9% in evening trading after topping Q4 EPS estimates and guiding for FY07 EPS to meet or beat Street views. Shares soared the next day, ending the regular session up 10.7%.

On October 30, 2006, TXRH inched up 0.07% in after hours when the company beat Q3 estimates. The shares added just slightly to those gains the following day, closing the regular session up 0.7%.

On July 31, 2006, TXRH lost 2.5% in night trading after missing Q2 sales estimates. Shares lost more ground the next day, ending the day session down 7.4%.

On May 1, 2006, the company beat Q1 sales estimates after the bell, but no data were recorded. The next day, there were also no data logged.

On February 21, 2006, shares dropped 2.7% after missing Q4 and FY estimates in the after market. However, shares regained their footing the next day, ending the day session up 1.6%.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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Tagged: , Restaurants, Earnings
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