Economic Calendar: China Data, U.S. Inflation, and EU GDP

by: Econ Grapher

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 8th of May 2011. This week features China's monthly economic data release with PPI, CPI, industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment, and international trade stats due out from the world's second largest economy. Elsewhere there is an emphasis on inflation data with CPI due from Germany, France, Switzerland, and the US, there's also PPI data due from those countries. The other key data pieces will be eurozone GDP, and industrial production data from the eurozone, UK, Italy, France, and of course China.

(More commentary follows the table)

Date GMT Country/ Currency Event Forecast Previous
SUN NZD REINZ Housing Price Index MoM% 0.50%
MON 08:30 EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence 14.20
MON 00:00 NZD QV House Prices (YoY) -2.00%
MON 01:30 AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) 500M -205M
MON 02:00 CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) 7.00% 7.30%
MON 02:00 CNY Industrial Production YTD YoY 14.50% 14.40%
MON 02:00 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) 14.60% 14.80%
MON 02:00 CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) 5.20% 5.40%
MON 02:00 CNY Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD YoY 24.90% 25.00%
MON 02:00 CNY Retail Sales YTD YoY 16.70% 16.30%
MON 02:00 CNY Trade Balance (USD) $3.20B $0.14B
MON 02:00 CNY Exports YoY% 29.50% 35.80%
MON 02:00 CNY Imports YoY% 28.90% 27.30%
MON 02:00 CNY Retail Sales (YoY) 17.60% 17.40%
TUE 06:45 EUR French Industrial Production (YoY) 4.70% 5.60%
TUE 07:15 CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) 0.60% 1.00%
TUE 08:00 EUR Italian Industrial Production n.s.a. (YoY) 3.00% 2.30%
TUE 12:30 USD Import Price Index (MoM) 1.80% 2.70%
TUE 12:30 USD Import Price Index (YoY) 10.50% 9.70%
TUE 01:30 AUD Unemployment Rate 4.90% 4.90%
TUE 01:30 AUD Employment Change 17.0K 37.8K
WED 05:00 JPY Leading Index 99.80 104.20
WED 06:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) 2.40% 2.40%
WED 08:30 GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) -£3250 -£2443
WED 09:30 GBP Bank of England Inflation Report
WED 12:30 USD Trade Balance -$47.0B -$45.8B
WED 18:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement -$63.8B -$188.2B
WED 23:50 JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD (YoY) 2.70% 2.70%
WED 23:50 JPY Current Account Total (Yen) ¥1750.0B ¥1641.0B
WED 23:50 JPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) ¥305.0B ¥723.3B
WED GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate 0.70%
THU 05:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook 26.60
THU 05:30 EUR French Consumer Price Index (YoY) 2.10% 2.00%
THU 08:30 GBP Industrial Production (YoY) 1.10% 2.40%
THU 08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) 2.80% 4.90%
THU 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) 6.30% 7.50%
THU 12:30 CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) 2.20% 2.10%
THU 12:30 USD Producer Price Index (YoY) 6.50% 5.80%
THU 12:30 USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) 2.10% 1.90%
THU 12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales 0.60% 0.40%
THU 12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos 0.60% 0.80%
FRI 05:30 EUR French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 1.80% 1.50%
FRI 06:00 EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) 4.50% 4.00%
FRI 06:00 EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) 0.90% 0.40%
FRI 07:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) 0.50% 0.40%
FRI 08:00 EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 1.30% 1.50%
FRI 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) 0.60% 0.30%
FRI 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) 2.20% 2.00%
FRI 12:30 USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.10% 2.70%
FRI 12:30 USD Core CPI (YoY) 1.30% 1.20%
FRI 13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence 70.00 69.80

As noted the main even this week will probably be the China data. The two most keenly watched indicators will probably be inflation; expected to come in around 5.2% vs 5.4% in march, and international trade; with the trade balance expected to go positive again, about $3B. The other indicators will also be interesting and informative; the annual rate of expansion of industrial production is expected to moderate slightly, as is the producer price index, while retail sales is expected to accelerate slightly. So with all projections being for quite moderate moves, it will pay to keep an eye out for surprises here; also there's a decent chance of the move from the People's Bank of China (watch the CPI).

Another key feature of the week will be an update on the inflation situation in a few key developed markets. The US has import price index, producer price index, and consumer price index data due out; all are expected to come in higher (both core and headline) as a gradual recovery in demand, but also cost push inflation (commodities) drive up prices on a broader level. Others with CPI data include: Switzerland (lower), Germany (same), France (higher). Also this week is the Bank of England Inflation Report, which will provide an insight into how the Bank of England is thinking about inflation, and how it might guide their upcoming monetary policy decisions.

Also out this week is Q1 GDP results for the eurozone, with q/q growth expected a little faster at 0.6%, and annual growth at 2.2%. France is expected to grow a slightly faster 1.8% year on year, and Germany a slightly faster 4.5%. Also out this week is annual industrial production growth rate figures from France (lower at about 4.7%), Italy (faster at about 3%), United Kingdom (lower at about 1.1%), and of course China (slightly slower at about 14.6%). The US is also expected to put out retail sales figures (up slightly), and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey results (flat or small improvement).

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

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Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.