Small Business, Trade, Retail Data on Tuesday's Economic Calendar

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 |  Includes: DIA, QQQ, SPY
by: optionMONSTER

By Bryan McCormick

The National Federation of Independent Business' Small Business Optimism Index will be released at 7:30 a.m. ET. There is no forecast available for the index, but the last reading came in at 91.9. A number above 92 would be bullish, while a reading below 90 would be bearish.

At 7:45 a.m. ET, the ICSC/Goldman Store Sales report will be released. There are two parts to the report, the week-over-week and the year-over-year changes. Most traders focus on the year-over-year number because it is a better indicator of the longer-term trend.

The last week-over-week change came in at -0.8 percent. The year-over-year data in the previous report showed a gain of 2.8 percent. Stronger-than-expected positive numbers would be seen as bullish, while negative numbers would be bearish.

Import and Export Prices come out at 8:30 a.m. ET. Export prices are forecast to come in at up 0.9 percent, while import prices are expected to rise a sharp 1.8 percent. Significantly larger import prices over export prices are inflationary, as the consensus suggests.

At the high end, export prices are seen growing by 1.5 percent while at the low end import prices are expected to rise 1 percent. That would be a bullish outcome.

Redbook Store Sales will be reported at 8:55 a.m. ET. As with the ICSC-Goldman report, there are two components to watch: One is the more volatile month-over-month change, and the other is the year-over-year reading, which shows the broader trend best.

The last month-over-month change was a gain of 1.3 percent. The previous report's year-over-year data showed a gain of 5.5 percent. Negative numbers in either series would be bearish.

Wholesale Trade comes out at 10 a.m. ET. Inventories are seen growing by 1 percent, while sales are expected to grow by 1.4 percent. That would be a bullish outcome, with sales growing faster than inventories. A bearish outcome would be a decline in sales while inventories grow at a significantly higher rate.