Mortgage, Trade, Oil Reports on Calendar

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 |  Includes: DIA, QQQ, SPY
by: optionMONSTER

The first economic report of the morning will be the weekly MBA Purchase Applications data at 7 a.m. ET. There are no forecasts available for this mortgage report, but last week its purchases component came in at 182.7.

A reading higher than 182.7 by 5 percent or more would be bullish, while one lower by the same margin or more would be bearish. Traders focus on purchases as a leading indicator of future consumer spending.

International Trade comes out at 8:30 a.m. ET. The consensus forecast calls for the trade gap to grow to -$47 billion. The range is from a bearish -$49.3 billion to a more bullish -$43 billion. Larger gaps generally mean weakness for the U.S. dollar, and smaller ones strength.

The EIA Petroleum Status Report will be released at 10:30 a.m. ET. Before the EIA data comes out, the American Petroleum Institute issues a competing report based on its own supply data.

The forecast for both reports was for a build of 1.4 million barrels. But the API release, which came out last night after the market closed, showed a larger build of 2.948 million barrels instead.

If the EIA data confirms this build or shows an even larger one, it could be bearish for oil. If the build is smaller than the API's number or a negative number indicating a draw, it could be bullish for crude.

This time around, however, the report may not have its usual impact. Traders are focused on the potential for refineries in Louisiana to be damaged by flood waters of the Mississippi.

The EIA is a government body, and the API is a private industry group. The two reports do not always agree either in terms of amount or direction.