Nvidia (NVDA) is due with its Q1 results in Thursday's after-hours session, and analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect the company to report a profit of $0.19 per share on revenue of $948 million.
NVDA favors widening its after-hours move in the next day session following an earning event. It has narrowed or reversed its next-day price movement 12 times and has widened its next-day movement 16 times. In a separate event it saw a flat evening trade followed by a next-day gain. In the near-term, performance favors widening, with more aggressive, same-direction trades in the following day's regular session in five of the the last six quarters.
Looking deeper into the performance data, NVDA has recorded an earnings-driven after-hours decline in 10 of the 29 quarters we've tracked. In seven of those quarters, 70% of the time, the stock has moved deeper in the red in the following day's regular session. On the long side, NVDA has recorded an earnings-driven after-hours gain in 18 quarters. It has reversed direction in the following day's regular session nine times, or 50% of the time.
On Feb. 16, 2011, NVDA slipped 0.5% in evening trade after reporting mixed Q4 results. The stock turned to the plus-side the following day, rising a hefty 9.8% by the close on Feb. 17.
On Nov. 11, 2010, NVDA advanced 4% in after-hours trade after topping Q3 earnings estimates. The stock added to its upside the following day, closing the Nov. 12 regular session up 5.1%.
On Aug. 12, 2010, NVDA gained 3.9% in evening trade despite missing Q2 expectations. The stock firmed higher the next day, closing the Aug. 13 regular session up 4.8%.
On May 13, 2010, NVDA shed 3.4% in after-hours despite reporting mostly better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock tumbled deeper in the red the following day, closing the May 14 regular session off 11.5%.
On Feb. 17, 2010, NVDA declined 4.1% in evening trade despite reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock added to its downside the following day, ending the Feb. 18 regular session off 6.5%.
On Nov. 5, 2009, the stock was up 6% after NVDA beat and guided for a revenue beat. Shares rose 7.2% the next day.
On Aug. 6, 2009, NVDA advanced 8.7% in evening action after reporting an unexpected profit and beating revenue expectations. The stock narrowed its upside the following day, ending up 4.5% in the Aug. 7 regular session.
On May 7, 2009, NVDA slumped 3.7% in after-hours trade despite posting better-than-expected Q1 results. The stock added to its downside in the May 8 regular session, closing with a 13.8% decline.
On Feb. 10, 2009, NVDA declined 2.9% in after-hours trade after missing revenue expectations. The stock tumbled lower the following day, losing 12.5% in the Feb. 11 regular session.
On Nov. 6, 2008, NVDA surged 12.6% in after-hours trade after topping Q3 expectations. It added to its gains the next day, rising 14.4% by the Nov. 7 closing bell.
On Aug. 12, 2008, NVDA advanced 10.2% in after-hours trade after beating earnings expectations and hiking its buyback plan. The stock added modestly to its upside the following day, rising 10.7% in the Aug. 13 regular session.
On May 8, 2008, NVDA traded flat in after-hours action on the heels of an earnings miss. The stock found support the next day, closing the May 9 regular sesssion up 2.6%.
On Feb. 13, 2008, the stock edged up 0.3% during evening trading when NVDA missed with Q4 sales. The stock plunged 16.3% the next day.
On Nov. 8, 2007, NVDA charged 7.7% higher in after-hours action after reporting in-line revenue and better-than-expected earnings results. It saw that gain evaporate the next day as the stock closed the Nov. 9 regular session down 1.4%.
On Aug. 9, 2007, NVDA eased 1.5% in night trade despite blowing past Q2 expectations and forecasting Q3 sales growth. Shares slipped further the next day to end the regular session down 4.6%.
On May 10, 2007, NVDA gained 4.5% in the evening hours after beating with results and guiding higher. The gain improved to 7% the next day.
On Feb. 13, 2007, shares were just lower in the evening session, slipping 0.06% after the company beat with earnings but guides for a decline in revenue. The loss increased to 1.3% the next day.
On November 9, 2006, NVDA gained 3% in night trade after topping Q3 expectations. However, shares could not hold onto their gains and closed the next day session down 2.1%.
On August 10, 2006, NVDA slid 8% in after hours when the company topped Q2 sales estimates but said it saw potential for charges related to stock option. The shares recovered some of their losses the next day, ending the regular session down 3.1%.
On May 11, 2006, shares were up 1.8% in the evening session after the company guided higher for Q2 on its conference call. The company had beat expectations with Q1 results, although shares were lower after that release. Shares reversed to drop 7.5% the next day.
On Feb. 16, 2006, shares were up 12.4% in the night session after the company beat with Q4 results and guided higher for Q1 revenue. The gain was sharply pared to just 0.5% the next day.
On Nov. 9, 2005, NVDA ramped 4.4% higher in after-hours trade after reporting results up sharply over year ago levels and guiding for Q4 revenue growth of 5% to 8%. The upside was fleeting heading into Nov. 10 as NVDA turned south in the regular session and ended bell-to-bell play down 3.7%.
On August 11, 2005, NVDA climbed 5.9% after posting higher Q2 EPS vs. the previous year, but revenue that missed the Street target. It gained slightly more in the Aug. 12 regular session, ending up 6%.
On May 12, 2005, NVDA soared 9.3% in after-hours trade after the company topped expectations and guided revenue slightly higher than the Street view. Buyers continued their vigorous play in the issue on May 13, boosting it 11.1% between the bells.
NVDA ramped 11.3% higher the night of Feb. 17, 2005 after the company beat estimates and guided its sales view higher. The stock maintained a bullish rise the next day, but failed to inspire more outsized gains, instead closing the Feb. 18 regular session up 10.8%.
NVDA jumped 8.9% the night of Nov. 4, 2004 after the company beat Q3 expectations and set its Q4 sales outlook ahead of the Street view. The stock saw more aggressive upside momentum in next-day trade, rising 14.4% by the Nov. 5 closing bell.
NVDA tumbled 22.3% the night of Aug. 5, 2004 after the company missed expectations and cut its outlook below the Street view. The stock added to its declines on Aug. 6, dropping 35.2% by the closing bell.
On May 6, 2004 NVDA added 2.5% in after-hours trade on better-than-expected results and higher guidance. It cut its gains the next day, closing the regular session up a thin 0.7%.
Back on Feb. 12, 2004 NVDA declined 7.3% in night trade on a revenue miss and lower guidance. It narrowed its downside the following day, slipping a mere 0.9% by the closing bell.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.