Inflation Expectations Are Falling in the Bond Market

Includes: IEF, TIP
by: Mark J. Perry

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Based on the "breakeven rate," or the difference between 10-year nominal Treasury yields and 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) yields, the bond market's expectation of future inflation has been falling over the last month, not rising. After peaking at 2.65% on April 11, the breakeven rate has been gradually falling, and dropped below 2.40% Friday for the first time since March 23. That's a 25 basis point drop in the breakeven rate over the last month.

HTs: John Makin over lunch in the AEI dining room on Thursday, and Paul Krugman (see his post here).