Falling Mortgage Rates Are Not an Inflation Signal

by: Mark J. Perry
30-year mortgage rates have been falling since early February, and fell to a six-month last week of 4.63%, the lowest level since early December last year (data here). If rising inflationary pressures are building up in the economy, wouldn't we expect rising, not falling, 30-year mortgage rates?

The chart above shows the historical relationship between 30-year mortgage rates and annual CPI inflation over the last 35 years. One clear market signal that inflationary expectations are increasing will be rising, not falling, 30-year mortgage rates.