Silver: $25 in Sight

Includes: SIVR, SLV
by: Kenneth D. Worth

The silver crash continues on an almost daily basis, with the shiny metal down another 2.66% around mid-day today. The total decline from the peak is now just over 33%. Because of the dramatic nature of the nearly threefold rise in the price of the precious metal over the prior 12 months, I previously called for an exit from speculative long positions and an entry of speculative short positions at about the $45 mark.

At that time, a downside target of $25 to $30 was given as a likely bottoming range and re-entry point for long-term silver bulls.

The $25-$30 range is now just $3 away. How time flies when you are having fun.

A bottom around $25 an ounce still gives long-term investors a nearly 40% return over the prior 12 months. How can we really complain about that?

Silver can be expected to chop around a bit over the summer to consolidate gains in the $25 to $35 range. The hot money traders (i.e. hedge funds and momentum traders) will be off to the next trade du jour in coffee, pork bellies, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), or frozen concentrated orange juice, so don't expect a quick return to the $50 range. The market will be left to industrial consumers and long-term silver investors.

Expect a retest of the $50 resistance level some time next year (i.e. 2012) with very healthy profits going to those who re-enter long positions in the high 20s as the crash continues in the days and weeks ahead.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Additional disclosure: Long physical silver