Cramer's Mad Money - Don't Doubt Dell (5/18/11)

by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Wednesday May 18.

Dell (NASDAQ:DELL), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ)

"I take back anything bad I said about CEO Michael Dell," said Cramer, removing the CEO's image from his CEO Wall of Shame. With Dell's (DELL) excellent quarter, the company seems to be back on track. Cramer was concerned that, like Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Dell had lost its way and was stuck in the consumer PC space. Dell beat earnings by 11 cents and gave a fiscal operating income growth forecast of 15%, up from 12%. Dell is expanding into data centers and enterprise solution services. While PCs comprise half of sales, the company is shifting its focus to more profitable areas. It is not lagging behind even in the PC space, but is offering higher margin products to consumers. The difference between Hewlett-Packard and Dell ultimately comes down to management execution.

Michael Dell gets time off for good behavior from Cramer's CEO Wall of Shame; "He is still the visionary he was in the 80s and 90s, and I was wrong to doubt Michael Dell."

Daniel Birnbaum, SodaStream (NASDAQ:SODA), Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (NASDAQ:GMCR)

Even after a large move higher, stocks that have genuine growth can still be attractive buys. Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), which produces the Keurig coffee maker, has seemed for a while to have run too much. However, the stock's astounding 3,300% rise in the last 6 years shows that some stocks have momentum that won't quit. A specialty product, like the Keurig, can be a dominant driver of growth. Cramer thinks SodaStream (SODA), an Israeli company that produces machines for making soda at home, might be the next Green Mountain Coffee Roaster.

SodaStream reported a stunning quarter after which it rose 23% in one session. The company beat earnings estimates by 12 cents and saw a revenue rise of 50%. Year over year, unit sales rose by 99% and sales from consumables like flavor mix saw a 271% gain in sales. The company is well-established in Europe where it has 80% market share in the home soda making business, and is just getting started in the U.S. SodaStream forecasted 30% revenue growth, up from 25% and 60% earnings growth, up from 40%. The stock has rallied 170% from where Cramer got behind it in November 2010.

Daniel Birnbaum discussed the strength of SodaStream's product which is a boon for consumers concerned about convenience, value, wellness and the environment. The consumer has over 100 flavors to choose from and 30 different kinds of units. When asked about the cost of the C02 canister, which critics say is too expensive, Birnbaum emphasized how the product saves customers substantial cash; SodaStream customers pay 70% less on carbonated water and 20-30% less than buying soda from the store. When asked about customers who are loyal to their soda brands, Birnbaum pointed out the top selling flavor in the U.S. is diet cola, and while there are "cola loyalists," the size of the market--$40 billion in the U.S. and $250 billion worldwide--will more than make up for those who prefer their store cola.

"Do I buy up 10 points?" asked Cramer. "Not my style, but if it comes in, I'll tell you, I think SodaStream is the next Green Mountain Coffee."

CEO Interview: Kelly King, BB&T (NYSE:BBT)

Banks are not a good place to be, but if you must buy a financial, find one that faces minimal government scrutiny. Regional banks seem the safest from new regulations, and one of the best is BB&T (BBT). Based in the South, BB&T was one of only 3 regional banks to stay profitable during the downturn. The company reported a robust quarter with a 32 cent earnings beat, but a revenue decline of 7%. BB&T saw a 1% gain in loan growth and produced strong results for residential mortgages, up 22.7% with an 8% rise in commercial and industrial mortgages. With its strong balance sheet, BB&T is in the position to make a big acquisition. it has never had to slash its dividend, recently increased it by 6.7% to its current rate of 2.4%. The stock has risen 35% since Cramer got behind it in 2009 on its $20 secondary offering, although the stock has declined 7% since Cramer spoke to the CEO in February.

CEO Kelly King admitted there was a lull in the first quarter and said it was a natural pullback that usually happens in times of global crisis. However, the company now has a robust pipeline, according to King. The CEO thinks new government regulations are an overreaction to the past financial crisis and thinks banks should be given the opportunity to do their share to grow the economy, rather than to have their profitability under threat.

"I love the support of their dividend," said Cramer.

Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT), Cummins (NYSE:CMI), Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG), Skyworks Solutions (NASDAQ:SWKS), American Capital Agency (NASDAQ:AGNC), Annaly (NYSE:NLY)

When Cramer urged viewers not to sell industrial stocks, he was right; there now seems to be a sector shift out of defensive stocks and into industrials. When the pain seems too great, it is often a good idea to take the other side of the trade and hold on if the long-term story is good. Procter & Gamble (PG) reported a disappointing quarter, and doesn't have enough growth to sustain its large moves. Investors should look beyond the gyrations of the market in reaction to headlines and pay attention to the long-term stories the companies are telling. It looks as if stocks like Caterpillar (CAT) and Cummins (CMI) are headed back up and food and drug stocks are on the way down.

Cramer took some calls:

Skyworks Solutions (SKWS) has a decent entry point, but buyers should not expect the stock to go up to $35 or $36 any time soon.

American Capital Agency (AGNC) is not a stock Cramer wants to get behind until he talks to the CEO and finds out more about the REIT's loans. Until then, the one REIT he is backing is Annaly (NLY).


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