Most companies outside Japan are adjusting to supply-chain disruptions arising from the March 11 earthquake and tsunami in Japan, limiting the financial impact, according to Moody’s .
“While it is too soon to count the full cost of the disaster, nine weeks later it seems clear that the supply chain disruptions were less severe than the worst fears suggested,” Moody’s said. “We think that for most companies affected by supply disruptions related to the disaster, the financial impact will be felt mainly in the second and third quarters of this year.”
Moody’s expects automakers and automotive parts suppliers to see modest declines in production, but little impact on 2011 operating performance. American and Korean automakers may gain market share at the expense of Japanese manufacturers.
According to the rating agency, the Detroit Big Three automakers will see a full-year 2011 production loss of less than 250,000 units, compared with the 6.8 million units they produced in 2010. However, Japanese automakers with their heavy exposure to Japanese parts suppliers will continue to suffer greater production losses.
In other sectors, consumer electronics and semiconductor firms have seen modest but manageable effects on business operations and financial results but largely have been able to move production to other facilities or obtain materials from other suppliers.
The North American and EMEA chemical industries did not see a significant change in demand; most of Japan’s chemical capacity returned to operation within a month, with the rest expected to re-open in May. Any incremental benefit from lost production in Japan has been overwhelmed by other beneficial factors, such as high commodity prices and strong Chinese demand.
