Guess Posts Record Quarter; Raises Fiscal 2008 Guidance

Guess, Inc. blew past analysts' Q4 forecasts and is forecasting up to 21% EPS growth for the fiscal year ending Feb. 2, 2008. The company will also be effecting a 2-for-1 stock split and initiating a $0.12 quarterly cash dividend. Last night, Guess posted a Q4 profit of $45.7 million ($0.99/share), well ahead of last year's result of $25.8 million ($0.57/share), on strong wholesale and retail businesses. Analysts were forecasting $0.93 EPS. Revenues soared 25% to $346.4 million. Guess is projecting full-year 2007 EPS of $2.80-2.82 on revenues of $1.2 billion and is forecasting EPS of $0.52-0.55 on consolidated net revenues of $325-335 million for fiscal Q1 ending May 5. It has raised its fiscal 2008 EPS forecast to $3.30-3.40, ahead of the Street's expectation of $3.13, and projects revenues in the $1.45-1.5 billion range. Guess shares gained 3% to $77 in AH trading after the report. Guess announced last month that it will change its fiscal year-end to the Saturday nearest January 31, from December 31, to bring it into alignment with the National Retail Federation's fiscal year.

Sources: Reuters, Business Week, MarketWatch, Press release
Commentary: Investor Guessing Games at Guess Jeans • Jim Cramer's Mad Money In-Depth Stock Picks, Jan. 18 • Time to Go to The Gap - As A Value Stock?
Stocks/ETFs to watch: Guess?, Inc. (GES). Competitors: Gap Inc. (GPS). ETFs: SPDR S&P Retail (XRT)

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